About

Carlos E. Dobkin is a professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz. His primary research areas include health economics, education, and applied econometrics. Throughout his career, Dobkin has contributed extensively to the understanding of health insurance impacts, the effectiveness of medical interventions such as influenza vaccination, and the economic consequences of hospital admissions. His work often employs rigorous empirical methods, including regression discontinuity designs, to analyze policy effects on health outcomes and healthcare utilization. Dobkin's research also explores the effects of alcohol regulation on public health and crime, as well as the broader social and economic impacts of government policies related to health and education. His scholarship is published in leading economic and medical journals, reflecting a strong interdisciplinary approach to addressing important public policy questions.

Research topics

• Environmental health
• Pediatrics
• Immunology
• Demography
• Medicine
• Internal medicine

Selected publications

• Data and Code for: Real-world Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine in Young Children

  Open MIND · 2026-03-05

  datasetOpen access

  The vaccination and doctor's office visits data come from a major health maintenance organization's (HMO) administrative records of doctors' office and clinic visits in California. This sample includes all children between the ages of 2 and 5 inclusive who were enrolled in the HMO at any time between 1 September 2008 and 31 August 2016. In a typical year there were 148,639 children between the ages of 2 and 5 observed in the data.<br>We supplement these data on doctors' office vaccinations and visits with data from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information (HCAI) on emergency department (ED) visits and inpatient stays for children ages 2 to 5 in all of California during the 2008-09 to 2015-16 influenza seasons. Outcomes of interest include visits for specific diagnostic categories. We code a child as having a visit for a specific illness if she visited a doctor, ED, or hospital for that illness between September 1 and August 31 during the relevant influenza season.<br>Since the data are confidential to or owned by the HMO and HCAI, we cannot post them in this archive. We include all code required to reproduce our results, however, and detailed instructions on how we obtained the data.

  OA PDFDOI

• Data and Code for: Real-world Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine in Young Children

  ICPSR Data Holdings · 2026-03-05

  datasetOpen access

  The vaccination and doctor's office visits data come from a major health maintenance organization's (HMO) administrative records of doctors' office and clinic visits in California. This sample includes all children between the ages of 2 and 5 inclusive who were enrolled in the HMO at any time between 1 September 2008 and 31 August 2016. In a typical year there were 148,639 children between the ages of 2 and 5 observed in the data.<br>We supplement these data on doctors' office vaccinations and visits with data from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information (HCAI) on emergency department (ED) visits and inpatient stays for children ages 2 to 5 in all of California during the 2008-09 to 2015-16 influenza seasons. Outcomes of interest include visits for specific diagnostic categories. We code a child as having a visit for a specific illness if she visited a doctor, ED, or hospital for that illness between September 1 and August 31 during the relevant influenza season.<br>Since the data are confidential to or owned by the HMO and HCAI, we cannot post them in this archive. We include all code required to reproduce our results, however, and detailed instructions on how we obtained the data.

  PublisherDOI

• Real-world Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine in Young Children

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-05-01 · 1 citations

  reportOpen access

  Influenza causes substantial illness and healthcare utilization among children.Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) demonstrate that the influenza vaccine reduces influenza illness detectable via active surveillance, but RCTs typically have insufficient samples to examine economically meaningful outcomes such as healthcare provider visits.In this study we document that children aged two through five whose well-child visits occur when the seasonal influenza vaccine is broadly available are 23.4 percentage points more likely to be vaccinated than those whose visits do not.Using large administrative healthcare datasets, we leverage this variation in vaccination rates to show that the influenza vaccine reduces outpatient and emergency department visits significantly.The results imply that making pediatric influenza vaccinations more convenient could substantially increase vaccination rates and reduce healthcare expenditures.

  PublisherDOI

• Effect of Influenza Vaccination for the Elderly on Hospitalization and Mortality

  Annals of Internal Medicine · 2020-08-17 · 3 citations

  letter

  Letters18 August 2020Effect of Influenza Vaccination for the Elderly on Hospitalization and MortalityMichael L. Anderson, PhD, Carlos Dobkin, PhD, and Devon Gorry, PhDMichael L. Anderson, PhDUniversity of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California (M.L.A.), Carlos Dobkin, PhDUniversity of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California (C.D.), and Devon Gorry, PhDClemson University, Clemson, South Carolina (D.G.)Author, Article, and Disclosure Informationhttps://doi.org/10.7326/L20-0829 SectionsAboutFull TextPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail IN RESPONSE:Dr. Donzelli states that our point estimates suggest that influenza vaccination exhibits negative effectiveness (harm) for our study population. Nevertheless, the CIs include the null effect (0). For any unbiased estimator of a true null effect, we would expect to find a point estimate indicating harm 50% of the time. As further evidence, Dr. Donzelli cites a meta-analysis that includes 6 RCTs of the influenza vaccine in patients at risk for CAD. He particularly focuses on 2 RCTs that enrolled outpatients without CAD. In his analysis, these 2 studies when pooled found that vaccination increased the risk for ...References1. Govaert TM, Thijs CT, Masurel N, et al. The efficacy of influenza vaccination in elderly individuals. A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. JAMA. 1994;272:1661-1665. [PMID: 7966893] CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar2. Becerra-Culqui TA, Sy LS, Ackerson BK, et al. Safety of quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine in infants and toddlers 2 to 23-months old. Vaccine. 2020;38:228-234. [PMID: 31648912] doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.10.024 CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar3. Allsup S, Haycox A, Regan M, et al. Is influenza vaccination cost effective for healthy people between ages 65 and 74 years? A randomised controlled trial. Vaccine. 2004;23:639-645. [PMID: 15542184] MedlineGoogle Scholar4. DiazGranados CA, Dunning AJ, Kimmel M, et al. Efficacy of high-dose versus standard-dose influenza vaccine in older adults. N Engl J Med. 2014;371:635-645. [PMID: 25119609] doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1315727 CrossrefMedlineGoogle Scholar Author, Article, and Disclosure InformationAffiliations: University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California (M.L.A.)University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California (C.D.)Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina (D.G.)Disclosures: Disclosures can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M19-3075. PreviousarticleNextarticle Advertisement FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsSee AlsoThe Effect of Influenza Vaccination for the Elderly on Hospitalization and Mortality Michael L. Anderson , Carlos Dobkin , and Devon Gorry Effect of Influenza Vaccination for the Elderly on Hospitalization and Mortality Alberto Donzelli Metrics Cited bySeroprevalence of influenza viruses in Shandong, Northern China during the COVID-19 pandemic 18 August 2020Volume 173, Issue 4Page: 322-323KeywordsDeath ratesDisclosureElderlyHospitalizationsMortalityOutpatientsVaccines ePublished: 18 August 2020 Issue Published: 18 August 2020 Copyright & PermissionsCopyright © 2020 by American College of Physicians. All Rights Reserved.PDF downloadLoading ...

  PublisherDOI

• The Effect of Influenza Vaccination for the Elderly on Hospitalization and Mortality

  Annals of Internal Medicine · 2020 · 36 citations

  • Medicine
  • Demography
  • Pediatrics

  Background: Observational studies using traditional research designs suggest that influenza vaccination reduces hospitalizations and mortality among elderly persons. Accordingly, health authorities in some countries prioritize vaccination of this population. Nevertheless, questions remain about this policy's effectiveness given the potential for bias and confounding in observational data. Objective: To determine the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in reducing hospitalizations and mortality among elderly persons by using an observational research design that reduces the possibility of bias and confounding. Design: A regression discontinuity design was applied to the sharp change in vaccination rate at age 65 years that resulted from an age-based vaccination policy in the United Kingdom. In this design, comparisons were limited to individuals who were near the age-65 threshold and were thus plausibly similar along most dimensions except vaccination rate. Setting: England and Wales. Participants: Adults aged 55 to 75 years residing in the study area during 2000 to 2014. Intervention: Seasonal influenza vaccine. Measurements: Hospitalization and mortality rates by month of age. Results: The data included 170 million episodes of care and 7.6 million deaths. Turning 65 was associated with a statistically and clinically significant increase in rate of seasonal influenza vaccination. However, no evidence indicated that vaccination reduced hospitalizations or mortality among elderly persons. The estimates were precise enough to rule out results from many previous studies. Limitation: The study relied on observational data, and its focus was limited to individuals near age 65 years. Conclusion: Current vaccination strategies prioritizing elderly persons may be less effective than believed at reducing serious morbidity and mortality in this population, which suggests that supplementary strategies may be necessary. Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Aging.

  PublisherDOI

• The Economic Consequences of Hospital Admissions

  American Economic Review · 2018-01-26 · 543 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  We use an event study approach to examine the economic consequences of hospital admissions for adults in two datasets: survey data from the Health and Retirement Study, and hospitalization data linked to credit reports. For non-elderly adults with health insurance, hospital admissions increase out-of-pocket medical spending, unpaid medical bills, and bankruptcy, and reduce earnings, income, access to credit, and consumer borrowing. The earnings decline is substantial compared to the out-of-pocket spending increase, and is minimally insured prior to age-eligibility for Social Security Retirement Income. Relative to the insured non-elderly, the uninsured non-elderly experience much larger increases in unpaid medical bills and bankruptcy rates following a hospital admission. Hospital admissions trigger fewer than 5 percent of all bankruptcies in our sample.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Replication data for: The Economic Consequences of Hospital Admissions

  ICPSR Data Holdings · 2018-01-01

  datasetOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  We use an event study approach to examine the economic consequences of hospital admissions for adults in two datasets: survey data from the Health and Retirement Study, and hospitalization data linked to credit reports. For non-elderly adults with health insurance, hospital admissions increase out-of-pocket medical spending, unpaid medical bills, and bankruptcy, and reduce earnings, income, access to credit, and consumer borrowing. The earnings decline is substantial compared to the out-of-pocket spending increase, and is minimally insured prior to age-eligibility for Social Security Retirement Income. Relative to the insured non-elderly, the uninsured non-elderly experience much larger increases in unpaid medical bills and bankruptcy rates following a hospital admission. Hospital admissions trigger fewer than 5 percent of all bankruptcies in our sample.

  PublisherDOI

• Myth and Measurement — The Case of Medical Bankruptcies

  New England Journal of Medicine · 2018-03-21 · 39 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Though there is compelling evidence that medical expenses do cause bankruptcies in the United States, they may cause far fewer than has been claimed. Overemphasizing such events may distract from an understanding of the true nature of health-related economic hardship.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• The Economic Consequences of Hospital Admissions (WP-16-24)

  2016-01-01 · 1 citations

  article1st authorCorresponding
  Publisher

• The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Morbidity in the United States

  The Review of Economics and Statistics · 2016-06-08 · 45 citations

  articleSenior author

  We provide the first evaluation of the effect of the U.S. minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) on nonfatal injuries. Using administrative records from several states and a regression discontinuity approach, we document that inpatient hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) visits increase by 8.4 and 71.3 per 10,000 person-years, respectively, at age 21. These effects are due mainly to an increase in the rate at which young men experience accidental injuries, alcohol overdoses, and injuries inflicted by others. Our results suggest that the literature’s disproportionate focus on mortality leads to a significant underestimation of the benefits of tighter alcohol control.

  PublisherDOI

Recent grants

• The Effects of Influenza Vaccination on the Rate of Serious Health Events

  NIH · $803k · 2014–2018

Frequent coauthors

• Christopher S. Carpenter

  16 shared

• Jacob Kosarchuk

  Tufts University

  12 shared

• Sean C. Nisam

  Santa Cruz County Office of Education

  12 shared

• Walter M. Bray

  12 shared

• Nicole Maestas

  10 shared

• Fernando Ferreira

  National Bureau of Economic Research

  10 shared

• Grant A. Hartzog

  University of California, Santa Cruz

  9 shared

• R. Scott Lokey

  University of California, Santa Cruz

  9 shared