About

Ryan Chahrour is the Ernest S. Liu Professor of Economics and International Studies at Cornell University. His current research focuses on the role of people's beliefs in driving macroeconomic phenomena, including boom-bust cycles in the economy and the durable role of the US dollar in international exchange. His research also examines the effects of monetary and fiscal policy and the consequences of pricing frictions within and across countries. Ryan completed his Ph.D. at Columbia University in 2012 and has held positions as an assistant and associate professor at Boston College. He has been a visiting scholar at the University of California at Berkeley, the Toulouse School of Economics, and the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and San Francisco. Prior to his graduate studies, he received a BA in Philosophy and Economics from Swarthmore College and worked as a Research Assistant at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Research topics

• Macroeconomics
• Economics
• Computer Science
• Econometrics
• Microeconomics
• Mathematical economics
• Monetary economics
• Keynesian economics

Selected publications

• Revisiting the forecasts of others

  Journal of Monetary Economics · 2025-10-08 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access1st author

  In macroeconomic models with dispersed information, agents have an incentive to learn from endogenous variables, which themselves depend on the forecasts of others. This paper revisits the model of Townsend (1983) to characterize how this mechanism affects equilibrium dynamics. The first part of the paper simplifies, revises, and extends past results about situations when prices are fully revealing. The second part shows that full revelation does not occur in the original model and proves that the equilibrium state vector is infinite-dimensional. It also provides a new numerical solution procedure for such cases, which operates entirely in the frequency domain.

  PublisherDOI

• Revisiting the Forecasts of Others

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-05-01 · 1 citations

  reportOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  In macroeconomic models with dispersed information, agents have an incentive to learn from endogenous variables, which themselves depend on the forecasts of others.This paper revisits the model of Townsend (1983) to characterize how this mechanism affects equilibrium dynamics.The first part of the paper simplifies, revises, and extends past results about situations when prices are fully revealing.The second part shows that full revelation does not occur in the original model and proves that the equilibrium state vector is infinite-dimensional.It also provides a new numerical solution procedure for such cases, which operates entirely in the frequency domain.

  PublisherDOI

• Expectation Response Functions in Dynamic Linear Economies

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-09-01

  reportOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Macroeconomic disturbances affect both current fundamentals and expectations of future fundamentals, but most analyses report only the total of these effects.The expectation response function (ERF) isolates the role of expected future fundamentals in a theory.Defined as the response today to a change in expected fundamentals at each future horizon, the ERF does not depend on the fundamentals' laws of motion, the information held by agents, or the assumption of rational expectations.In applications, we show that (i) the new-Keynesian model implies modest expectational effects of technology and monetary shocks, while (ii) markup shocks in a mediumscale DSGE model have far larger expectational impacts than the "puzzling" effects of forward guidance.

  PublisherDOI

• Revisiting the Forecasts of Others

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Expectation Response Functions in Dynamic Linear Economies

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• News Selection and Household Inflation Expectations

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• News Selection and Household Inflation Expectations

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-05-01 · 4 citations

  reportOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  We examine how the media's systematic selection of reporting topics influences household responses to inflation news.In a model where households learn about inflation from news coverage, households account for news selection when forming their expectations.Because media are more likely to report on inflation when it is high, the model implies an asymmetric response to news: high-inflation news changes expectations more than low-inflation news.We test this implication using household panel data, and find that exposure to higher-prices news increases inflation expectations by 0.4 percentage point, while exposure to lower-prices news has no significant effect.

  PublisherDOI

• Exchange Rate Disconnect Revisited

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2024-06-01 · 15 citations

  reportOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  We find that variation in expected U.S. productivity explains over half of G6 exchange rate fluctuations vis-a-vis the USD. Both correctly-anticipated changes in productivity and expectational “noise, ” which influences expectations of productivity but not the actual realization, have significant effects on exchange rates. Together, these two types of disturbances explain many unconditional exchange rate patterns, including predictable excess returns, low Backus-Smith correlations, and excess volatility. Our findings suggest these well-known puzzles have a common empirical origin, which is linked to (expected) productivity. We also discuss how noise in expectations has obscured the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals in the empirical approaches undertaken in prior work.

  PublisherDOI

• The Dollar in an Era of International Retrenchment

  IMF Economic Review · 2024-06-17 · 3 citations

  article1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• News Selection and Household Inflation Expectations

  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series · 2024-10-09 · 8 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  We examine how the media’s systematic selection of reporting topics influences household responses to inflation news. In a model where households learn about inflation from news coverage, households account for news selection when forming their expectations. Because media are more likely to report on inflation when it is high, the model implies an asymmetric response to news: high-inflation news changes expectations more than low-inflation news. We test this implication using household panel data, and find that exposure to higher-prices news increases inflation expectations by 0.4 percentage point, while exposure to lower-prices news has no significant effect.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Stephanie Schmitt–Grohé

  Center for Economic and Policy Research

  13 shared

• Rosen Valchev

  13 shared

• Martı́n Uribe

  Columbia University

  12 shared

• Gaetano Gaballo

  HEC Paris

  11 shared

• Kyle Jurado

  Duke University

  11 shared

• Robert Ulbricht

  Boston College

  7 shared

• Manoj Atolia

  6 shared

• Tristan Potter

  Drexel University

  4 shared

Awards & honors

• Ernest S. Liu Professor of Economics and International Studi…