Fare-Free Bus Service and CO2 Reductions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

arXiv (Cornell University) · 2026-01-05

We devise a difference-in-difference study design to assess the impact of fare-free bus service in Alexandria, located in the Washington, DC metro area. Our surveys show modest to no effect, with at most 6% more residents in Alexandria increasing their bus usage compared to control locations. We find no effect on ground-level ozone or road crashes, suggesting little to no impact on road traffic. One-third of respondents in control locations indicated they would use buses more frequently if fare-free service were available in their areas. Based on the respondent-reported reductions in car miles, the program led to a reduction of 0.294 to 0.494 tons of CO2 per year, or 5% to 9% of the average annual emissions from a US car, at a cost of $70-$120 per ton of CO2. We predict a CO2 reduction of 0.454 tons per year, equivalent to 8% of the average US car's annual emissions if the fare-free bus covered all of the study areas.

The effect of pricing instruments on CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from Australia

Energy Economics · 2026-05-01

Potential and Actual Accomplishments of Free Transit Programs: Evidence from Northern Virginia

SSRN Electronic Journal · 2026-01-01

Fare-Free Bus Service and CO2 Reductions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

ArXiv.org · 2026-01-05

We devise a difference-in-difference study design to assess the impact of fare-free bus service in Alexandria, located in the Washington, DC metro area. Our surveys show modest to no effect, with at most 6% more residents in Alexandria increasing their bus usage compared to control locations. We find no effect on ground-level ozone or road crashes, suggesting little to no impact on road traffic. One-third of respondents in control locations indicated they would use buses more frequently if fare-free service were available in their areas. Based on the respondent-reported reductions in car miles, the program led to a reduction of 0.294 to 0.494 tons of CO2 per year, or 5% to 9% of the average annual emissions from a US car, at a cost of $70-$120 per ton of CO2. We predict a CO2 reduction of 0.454 tons per year, equivalent to 8% of the average US car's annual emissions if the fare-free bus covered all of the study areas.

Policy forces in the German new car market: How do they affect PHEV and BEV sales?

Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · 2025-04-17 · 4 citations

Mobile device location data: Can they capture the relationship between VMT and gasoline prices?

Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · 2025-05-22

Heterogeneous Effects of Government Energy Assistance Programs:Covid-19 Lockdowns in the Republic of Georgia

SSRN Electronic Journal · 2024-01-01

The Effect of Pricing Instruments on CO2 Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Australia

Washington, DC: World Bank eBooks · 2024-06-24 · 1 citations

This study investigates the emission reduction effects of a mix of market-based climate policies in Australia, where a dramatic ramp-up of incentives for renewable electricity generation was paired with a short-lived carbon tax. A synthetic control method is employed to estimate the joint effect of the policies. Contrary to the general perception in the existing literature, this study shows that the green electricity and carbon tax policies together caused a 7 percent reduction in emissions per capita from 2009 to 2018. The emission reduction impacts attenuated when the carbon price was repealed, and the renewable targets were softened. The study also finds that the policy mix did not reduce the production of Australian coal and may have expanded its export. The findings suggest that even imperfect climate change mitigation policies can have substantial and persistent effects on emissions as well as unintended consequences.

Ownership and use of electric vehicles in the Washington, DC, metro area

Travel Behaviour and Society · 2024-11-19 · 3 citations

Heterogeneous effects of government energy assistance programs: Covid-19 lockdowns in the republic of Georgia

Energy Economics · 2024-09-02 · 2 citations