Robert Blair
· Arkadij Eisler Goldman Sachs Associate Professor of Political Science and International and Public AffairsVerifiedBrown University · Psychology
Active 1935–2025
About
Robert Blair is the Arkadij Eisler Goldman Sachs Associate Professor of Political Science and International and Public Affairs at Brown University. His research centers on international intervention and the consolidation of state authority after civil war, with a particular focus on the rule of law and security institutions. He directs the Civil Conflict and Democratic Erosion Lab at Brown and co-founded the Democratic Erosion Consortium, which includes over 70 universities across multiple countries. This consortium integrates research, teaching, and civic and policy engagement to address threats to democracy both in the United States and internationally. Blair's work explores critical questions such as restoring citizens' trust in security institutions after periods of state absence or abuse, predicting and preventing local violence during transitions to peace, and identifying threats to democratic norms and institutions. He has conducted research in diverse countries including Colombia, Brazil, Liberia, Uganda, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Tunisia, and the US, supported by organizations such as the National Science Foundation, the US State Department, and the Hewlett Foundation. His scholarship has been published in leading academic journals, and his book "Peacekeeping, Policing, and the Rule of Law after Civil War" was published by Cambridge University Press in 2020. Blair holds a B.A. from Brown University, an M.Sc in conflict studies from the Universidad de los Andes in Bogotá, Colombia, and a Ph.D. in political science from Yale University. Beyond academia, he is a 3rd-degree black belt in Taekwondo.
Research topics
- Political Science
- Sociology
- Law
- Economics
- Computer Science
- Political economy
- Public relations
- Criminology
- Geography
- Psychology
- Accounting
- Development economics
Selected publications
Political Behavior · 2025-01-28 · 9 citations
articleGovernance · 2025-06-29
article1st authorCorrespondingThe author has nothing to report.
2025-12-16
book-chapterOpen access1st authorCorrespondingPolitical Psychology · 2025-06-19
article1st authorCorrespondingAbstract Recent years have witnessed a proliferation of initiatives aimed at reducing partisan polarization in the United States. Many of these initiatives focus on promoting civil dialogue across partisan lines and fostering tolerance for diverse political perspectives. While these are laudable goals, we argue that emphasizing civility and tolerance may have the adverse unintended consequence of diminishing citizens' willingness to engage in conflictive conversations about normatively important but politically divisive subjects. We focus on two especially prominent (but contentious) preoccupations of contemporary American politics: combating racism and countering the spread of misinformation. We test our theory through an experimental evaluation of two scalable online depolarization workshops. Our results suggest that the workshops mitigated affective polarization and negative partisanship among a subsample of participants drawn from a nationally representative voter database. Consistent with our theory, however, the workshops also appear to have diminished these same participants' willingness to confront false or racist speech when doing so would require conflictive conversations with out‐partisans. We conclude by considering the complex practical and normative implications of our results.
The Journal of Politics · 2025-11-21
article1st authorCorresponding<i>Mano dura</i> : An experimental evaluation of military policing in Cali, Colombia
American Journal of Political Science · 2025-04-12 · 2 citations
articleOpen access1st authorCorrespondingAbstract Governments across the Global South rely on their militaries for domestic policing operations. We experimentally evaluate the social and political consequences of a military policing intervention in Cali, Colombia, one of the world's most violent cities. The intervention, Plan Fortaleza , involved recurring, intensive military patrols randomized at the city block level. Our evaluation combines administrative crime and human rights data, surveys of more than 10,000 residents, a conjoint experiment, a “costly” behavioral measure, and qualitative interviews with 49 civil society leaders. Despite null or adverse effects on crime and human rights, we show that Plan Fortaleza improved citizen’ attitudes toward the military and increased their demand for military involvement in domestic law enforcement. It also strengthened citizens’ support for extrajudicial punishment and—alarmingly—for military coups in response to rising crime, potentially signaling a diminished commitment to democracy and the rule of law among the program's intended beneficiaries.
British Journal of Political Science · 2025-01-01
articleOpen access1st authorCorrespondingAbstract Do employment opportunities for women reduce intimate partner violence (IPV)? We address this question using harmonized field experiments in Egypt and Tunisia. In Egypt, we evaluate a public works program that disproportionately benefited women; in Tunisia, the program we evaluate benefited men and women equally. Consistent with a household bargaining model in which men perpetrate IPV to maintain dominance over their spouses, we find that the Egyptian program exacerbated IPV and heightened psychological distress, even among eligible women who were not randomly selected to participate, while the Tunisian program did not. Also consistent with this model, the Egyptian program increased women’s control over spending – a measure of bargaining power – while the Tunisian program did not. We rule out several alternative explanations for these results. Finally, we show that the Egyptian program’s adverse effects on IPV persisted over time, but did not spill over onto women in the community writ large.
Depolarizing within the Comfort of Your Party: Experimental Evidence from Online Workshops
Political Communication · 2025-03-03 · 3 citations
articleOpen access1st authorPolitical Science Research and Methods · 2025-08-27
articleOpen accessAbstract Can observing opposing partisans engage in dialogue depolarize Americans at scale? Partisan animosity poses a challenge to democracy in the United States. Direct intergroup contact interventions have shown promise in reducing partisan polarization, but are costly, time-consuming, and sensitive to subtle changes in implementation. Vicarious intergroup contact—observing co-partisans engage with outparty members—offers a possible solution to the drawbacks of direct contact, and could potentially depolarize Americans quickly and at scale. We test this proposition using a pre-registered, placebo-controlled trial with a nationally representative sample of Americans. Using both attitudinal and behavioral measures, we find that a 50-minute documentary showing an intergroup contact workshop reduces polarization and increases interest but not investment in depolarization activities. While we find no evidence that the film mitigates anti-democratic attitudes, it does increase optimism about the survival of democratic institutions. Our findings suggest that vicarious intergroup contact delivered via mass media can be an effective, inexpensive, and scalable way to promote depolarization among Americans.
EJVES Vascular Forum · 2024-01-01 · 3 citations
articleOpen accessThe first COVID-19 pandemic wave was a period of reduced surgical activity and redistribution of resources to only those with late stage or critical presentations. This Vascular and Endovascular Research Network COVID-19 Vascular Service (COVER) study aimed to describe the six-month outcomes of patients who underwent open surgery and or endovascular interventions for major vascular conditions during this period. In this international, multicentre, prospective, observational study, centres recruited consecutive patients undergoing vascular procedures over a 12-week period. The study opened in March 2020 and closed to recruitment in August 2020. Patient demographics, procedure details, and post-operative outcomes were collected on a secure online database. The reported outcomes at 30 days and six months were post-operative complications, re-interventions, and all cause in-hospital mortality rate. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with six-month mortality rate. Data were collected on 3 150 vascular procedures, including 1 380 lower limb revascularisations, 609 amputations, 403 aortic, 289 carotid, and 469 other vascular interventions. The median age was 68 years (interquartile range 59, 76), 73.5% were men, and 1.7% had confirmed COVID-19 disease. The cumulative all cause in-hospital, 30-day, and six-month mortality rates were 9.1%, 10.4%, and 12.8%, respectively. The six-month mortality rate was 32.1% (95% CI 24.2–40.8%) in patients with confirmed COVID-19 compared with 12.0% (95% CI 10.8–13.2%) in those without. After adjustment, confirmed COVID-19 was associated with a three times higher odds of six-month death (adjusted OR 3.25, 95% CI 2.18–4.83). Increasing ASA grade (3–5 vs . 1–2), frailty scores 4–9, diabetes mellitus, and urgent and or immediate procedures were also independently associated with increased odds of death by six months, while statin use had a protective effect. During the first wave of the pandemic, the six-month mortality rate after vascular and endovascular procedures was higher compared with historic pre-pandemic studies and associated with COVID-19 disease. • Six-month mortality after vascular procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic was 12.8%. • Cumulative mortality rate was higher compared with pre-pandemic figures in the literature. • Of the included cases, 3.7% had confirmed or suspected COVID-19. • Confirmed COVID-19 was associated with a three times higher odds of six-month mortality.
Frequent coauthors
- 28 shared
Laura Paler
Inter-American Institute
- 28 shared
Jessica Gottlieb
- 27 shared
Benjamin S. Morse
- 27 shared
Hannah Baron
Tulane University
- 24 shared
Alexandra Hartman
University College London
- 21 shared
Christopher Blattman
University of Chicago
- 15 shared
Sabrina Karim
- 14 shared
Lily L. Tsai
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Awards & honors
- Theda Skocpol Emerging Scholar Award (2025)
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