
Philip Tetlock
University of Pennsylvania · Psychology
Active 1979–2024
Research topics
- Sociology
- Computer Science
- Political Science
- Economics
- Data science
- Social psychology
- Public relations
- Law
- Psychology
- Mathematics
- Epistemology
- Biology
- Econometrics
- Engineering
- Engineering ethics
Selected publications
Prosocial motives underlie scientific censorship by scientists: A perspective and research agenda
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2023 · 96 citations
- Political Science
- Sociology
- Political Science
Science is among humanity's greatest achievements, yet scientific censorship is rarely studied empirically. We explore the social, psychological, and institutional causes and consequences of scientific censorship (defined as actions aimed at obstructing particular scientific ideas from reaching an audience for reasons other than low scientific quality). Popular narratives suggest that scientific censorship is driven by authoritarian officials with dark motives, such as dogmatism and intolerance. Our analysis suggests that scientific censorship is often driven by scientists, who are primarily motivated by self-protection, benevolence toward peer scholars, and prosocial concerns for the well-being of human social groups. This perspective helps explain both recent findings on scientific censorship and recent changes to scientific institutions, such as the use of harm-based criteria to evaluate research. We discuss unknowns surrounding the consequences of censorship and provide recommendations for improving transparency and accountability in scientific decision-making to enable the exploration of these unknowns. The benefits of censorship may sometimes outweigh costs. However, until costs and benefits are examined empirically, scholars on opposing sides of ongoing debates are left to quarrel based on competing values, assumptions, and intuitions.
AI and the transformation of social science research
Science · 2023 · 303 citations
- Sociology
- Computer Science
- Data science
Careful bias management and data fidelity are key.
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
Nature Human Behaviour · 2023 · 67 citations
- Econometrics
- Economics
- Mathematics
Frequent coauthors
- 49 shared
Barbara A. Mellers
University of Pennsylvania
- 21 shared
Lyle Ungar
California University of Pennsylvania
- 19 shared
Justin Wolfers
University of Michigan–Ann Arbor
- 19 shared
Orie V. Kristel
- 17 shared
Pavel Atanasov
IE University
- 16 shared
A. Peter McGraw
University of Colorado Boulder
- 10 shared
Gregory Mitchell
- 9 shared
Barb Mellers
California University of Pennsylvania
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