Modeling for COVID-19 college reopening decisions: Cornell, a case study

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2021 · 64 citations

• Medicine
• Psychology
• Family medicine

We consider epidemiological modeling for the design of COVID-19 interventions in university populations, which have seen significant outbreaks during the pandemic. A central challenge is sensitivity of predictions to input parameters coupled with uncertainty about these parameters. Nearly 2 y into the pandemic, parameter uncertainty remains because of changes in vaccination efficacy, viral variants, and mask mandates, and because universities' unique characteristics hinder translation from the general population: a high fraction of young people, who have higher rates of asymptomatic infection and social contact, as well as an enhanced ability to implement behavioral and testing interventions. We describe an epidemiological model that formed the basis for Cornell University's decision to reopen for in-person instruction in fall 2020 and supported the design of an asymptomatic screening program instituted concurrently to prevent viral spread. We demonstrate how the structure of these decisions allowed risk to be minimized despite parameter uncertainty leading to an inability to make accurate point estimates and how this generalizes to other university settings. We find that once-per-week asymptomatic screening of vaccinated undergraduate students provides substantial value against the Delta variant, even if all students are vaccinated, and that more targeted testing of the most social vaccinated students provides further value.

Fairmandering: A column generation heuristic for fairness-optimized political districting

Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics eBooks · 2021 · 15 citations

• Computer Science
• Computer Science
• Mathematical optimization

The American winner-take-all congressional district system empowers politicians to engineer electoral outcomes by manipulating district boundaries. Existing computational solutions mostly focus on drawing unbiased maps by ignoring political and demographic input, and instead simply optimize for compactness. We claim that this is a flawed approach because compactness and fairness are orthogonal qualities, and introduce a scalable two-stage method to explicitly optimize for arbitrary piecewise-linear definitions of fairness. The first stage is a randomized divide-and-conquer column generation heuristic which produces an exponential number of distinct district plans by exploiting the compositional structure of graph partitioning problems. This district ensemble forms the input to a master selection problem to choose the districts to include in the final plan. Our decoupled design allows for unprecedented flexibility in defining fairness-aligned objective functions. The pipeline is arbitrarily parallelizable, is flexible to support additional redistricting constraints, and can be applied to a wide array of other regionalization problems. In the largest ever ensemble study of congressional districts, we use our method to understand the range of possible expected outcomes and the implications of this range on potential definitions of fairness.

Approximation Algorithms for the Bottleneck Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem

arXiv (Cornell University) · 2020 · 9 citations

• Computer Science
• Combinatorics
• Mathematics

We present the first nontrivial approximation algorithm for the bottleneck asymmetric traveling salesman problem. Given an asymmetric metric cost between n vertices, the problem is to find a Hamiltonian cycle that minimizes its bottleneck (or maximum-length edge) cost. We achieve an O(log n / log log n) approximation performance guarantee by giving a novel algorithmic technique to shortcut Eulerian circuits while bounding the lengths of the shortcuts needed. This allows us to build on a related result of Asadpour, Goemans, Mądry, Oveis Gharan, and Saberi to obtain this guarantee. Furthermore, we show how our technique yields stronger approximation bounds in some cases, such as the bounded orientable genus case studied by Oveis Gharan and Saberi. We also explore the possibility of further improvement upon our main result through a comparison to the symmetric counterpart of the problem.

Data-Driven Rebalancing Methods for Bike-Share Systems

Springer eBooks · 2020 · 14 citations

• Computer Science
• Computer Science
• Computer Security