The impacts of climate change, energy policy and traditional ecological practices on future firewood availability for Diné (Navajo) People

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · 2023 · 9 citations

• Environmental resource management
• Natural resource economics
• Agroforestry

Local-scale human-environment relationships are fundamental to energy sovereignty, and in many contexts, Indigenous ecological knowledge (IEK) is integral to such relationships. For example, Tribal leaders in southwestern USA identify firewood harvested from local woodlands as vital. For Diné people, firewood is central to cultural and physical survival and offers a reliable fuel for energy embedded in local ecological systems. However, there are two acute problems: first, climate change-induced drought will diminish local sources of firewood; second, policies aimed at reducing reliance on greenhouse-gas-emitting energy sources may limit alternatives like coal for home use, thereby increasing firewood demand to unsustainable levels. We develop an agent-based model trained with ecological and community-generated ethnographic data to assess the future of firewood availability under varying climate, demand and IEK scenarios. We find that the long-term sustainability of Indigenous firewood harvesting is maximized under low-emissions and low-to-moderate demand scenarios when harvesters adhere to IEK guidance. Results show how Indigenous ecological practices and resulting ecological legacies maintain resilient socio-environmental systems. Insights offered focus on creating energy equity for Indigenous people and broad lessons about how Indigenous knowledge is integral for adapting to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Quantifying methane emissions from the global scale down to point sources using satellite observations of atmospheric methane

Atmospheric chemistry and physics · 2022 · 335 citations

• Remote sensing
• Environmental science
• Meteorology

Abstract. We review the capability of current and scheduled satellite observations of atmospheric methane in the shortwave infrared (SWIR) to quantify methane emissions from the global scale down to point sources. We cover retrieval methods, precision and accuracy requirements, inverse and mass balance methods for inferring emissions, source detection thresholds, and observing system completeness. We classify satellite instruments as area flux mappers and point source imagers, with complementary attributes. Area flux mappers are high-precision (<1 %) instruments with 0.1–10 km pixel size designed to quantify total methane emissions on regional to global scales. Point source imagers are fine-pixel (<60 m) instruments designed to quantify individual point sources by imaging of the plumes. Current area flux mappers include GOSAT (2009–present), which provides a high-quality record for interpretation of long-term methane trends, and TROPOMI (2018–present), which provides global continuous daily mapping to quantify emissions on regional scales. These instruments already provide a powerful resource to quantify national methane emissions in support of the Paris Agreement. Current point source imagers include the GHGSat constellation and several hyperspectral and multispectral land imaging sensors (PRISMA, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8/9, WorldView-3), with detection thresholds in the 100–10 000 kg h−1 range that enable monitoring of large point sources. Future area flux mappers, including MethaneSAT, GOSAT-GW, Sentinel-5, GeoCarb, and CO2M, will increase the capability to quantify emissions at high resolution, and the MERLIN lidar will improve observation of the Arctic. The averaging times required by area flux mappers to quantify regional emissions depend on pixel size, retrieval precision, observation density, fraction of successful retrievals, and return times in a way that varies with the spatial resolution desired. A similar interplay applies to point source imagers between detection threshold, spatial coverage, and return time, defining an observing system completeness. Expanding constellations of point source imagers including GHGSat and Carbon Mapper over the coming years will greatly improve observing system completeness for point sources through dense spatial coverage and frequent return times.

NASA's surface biology and geology designated observable: A perspective on surface imaging algorithms

Remote Sensing of Environment · 2021 · 319 citations

• Environmental science
• Remote sensing
• Ecology

The 2017–2027 National Academies' Decadal Survey, Thriving on Our Changing Planet, recommended Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) as a “Designated Targeted Observable” (DO). The SBG DO is based on the need for capabilities to acquire global, high spatial resolution, visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR; 380–2500 nm; ~30 m pixel resolution) hyperspectral (imaging spectroscopy) and multispectral midwave and thermal infrared (MWIR: 3–5 μm; TIR: 8–12 μm; ~60 m pixel resolution) measurements with sub-monthly temporal revisits over terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal marine habitats. To address the various mission design needs, an SBG Algorithms Working Group of multidisciplinary researchers has been formed to review and evaluate the algorithms applicable to the SBG DO across a wide range of Earth science disciplines, including terrestrial and aquatic ecology, atmospheric science, geology, and hydrology. Here, we summarize current state-of-the-practice VSWIR and TIR algorithms that use airborne or orbital spectral imaging observations to address the SBG DO priorities identified by the Decadal Survey: (i) terrestrial vegetation physiology, functional traits, and health; (ii) inland and coastal aquatic ecosystems physiology, functional traits, and health; (iii) snow and ice accumulation, melting, and albedo; (iv) active surface composition (eruptions, landslides, evolving landscapes, hazard risks); (v) effects of changing land use on surface energy, water, momentum, and carbon fluxes; and (vi) managing agriculture, natural habitats, water use/quality, and urban development. We review existing algorithms in the following categories: snow/ice, aquatic environments, geology, and terrestrial vegetation, and summarize the community-state-of-practice in each category. This effort synthesizes the findings of more than 130 scientists.

Intermittency of Large Methane Emitters in the Permian Basin

Environmental Science & Technology Letters · 2021 · 274 citations

• Environmental science
• Atmospheric sciences
• Physical geography

The Permian Basin is the largest and fastest growing oil and gas (O&G) producing region in the United States. We conducted an extensive airborne campaign across the majority of the Permian in September–November, 2019 with imaging spectrometers to quantify strong methane (CH4) point source emissions at facility-scales, including high frequency sampling to evaluate intermittency. We identified 1100 unique and heavy-tailed distributed sources that were sampled at least 3 times (average 8 times), showing 26% average persistence. Sources that were routinely persistent (50–100%) make up only 11% of high emitting infrastructure but 29% of quantified emissions from this population, potentially indicative of leaking equipment that merits repair. Sector attribution of plumes shows that 50% of detected emissions result from O&G production, 38% from gathering and boosting, and 12% from processing. This suggests a 20% relative shift from upstream to midstream compared to other US O&G basins for large emitters. Simultaneous spectroscopic identification of flares found that 12% of detected Permian CH4 plume emissions were associated with either active or inactive flares. Frequent, high-resolution monitoring is necessary to accurately understand intermittent methane superemitters across large, heterogeneous O&G basins and efficiently pinpoint persistent leaks for mitigation.

Scaled biomass estimation in woodland ecosystems: Testing the individual and combined capacities of satellite multispectral and lidar data

Remote Sensing of Environment · 2021 · 77 citations

• Computer Science
• Remote sensing
• Environmental science

Multisatellite Imaging of a Gas Well Blowout Enables Quantification of Total Methane Emissions

Geophysical Research Letters · 2020 · 110 citations

• Environmental science
• Atmospheric sciences
• Meteorology

Abstract Incidents involving loss of control of oil/gas wells can result in large but variable emissions whose impact on the global methane budget is currently unknown. On November 1, 2019, a gas well blowout was reported in the Eagle Ford Shale. By combining satellite observations at different spatial and temporal scales, we quantified emissions 10 times during the 20‐day event. Our multisatellite synthesis captures both the short‐term dynamics and total integrated emissions of the blowout. Such detailed event characterization was previously not possible from space and difficult to do with surface measurements. We present 30‐m methane and carbon dioxide plumes from the PRISMA satellite, which let us estimate flare combustion efficiency (87%). Integrating emissions across all satellites, we estimate 4,800 ± 980 metric tons lost methane. Blowouts occur across the globe and multisatellite observations can help to determine their pervasiveness, enable corrective action, and quantify their contribution to global methane budgets.

A century of observations reveals increasing likelihood of continental-scale compound dry-hot extremes

Science Advances · 2020 · 352 citations

• Environmental science
• Geography
• Cartography

Using over a century of ground-based observations over the contiguous United States, we show that the frequency of compound dry and hot extremes has increased substantially in the past decades, with an alarming increase in very rare dry-hot extremes. Our results indicate that the area affected by concurrent extremes has also increased significantly. Further, we explore homogeneity (i.e., connectedness) of dry-hot extremes across space. We show that dry-hot extremes have homogeneously enlarged over the past 122 years, pointing to spatial propagation of extreme dryness and heat and increased probability of continental-scale compound extremes. Last, we show an interesting shift between the main driver of dry-hot extremes over time. While meteorological drought was the main driver of dry-hot events in the 1930s, the observed warming trend has become the dominant driver in recent decades. Our results provide a deeper understanding of spatiotemporal variation of compound dry-hot extremes.