About

Francis E. Warnock is a James C. Wheat Jr. Professor in the Global Economies and Markets Area at the University of Virginia--Darden Business School. His research focuses on international finance, financial markets, and the macroeconomy.

Research topics

• Political Science
• Economics
• Physics
• Financial economics
• Macroeconomics
• Monetary economics
• Geography
• Business
• Microeconomics
• Market economy
• Econometrics

Selected publications

• The Position and Slope of the Yield Curve

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2026-01-01

  preprintOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• The World's Next Reserve Currency

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• From Draghi's "Whatever it Takes" to Managing Fragmentation Risk

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Exorbitant Changes in Three Parts

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-10-01 · 1 citations

  reportOpen accessSenior author

  We document that the positive differential on international portfolio returns, one aspect of the U.S. exorbitant privilege, has disappeared in three parts.Part One: U.S. international liabilities used to be mostly in low-return bonds while its international assets were largely in high-returning equities, thus naturally producing a positive return differential.More recently, however, U.S. equity liabilities have increased sharply, slightly reducing this compositional tailwind.Part Two: While the exorbitant privilege literature has focused on the sample arithmetic mean, the geometric mean is also required to produce an unbiased estimate of expected returns.Incorporating geometric means greatly reduces the returns differential.Part Three is a combined switch a) from aggregate to comprehensive security-level data to more accurately calculate returns and b) from expected to realized returns that take into account the timing and magnitude of portfolio flows.The combined effect of these changes is that over the past two decades the U.S. portfolio returns differential was not 228 bps but zero, and it is expected to be roughly zero over the next decade.

  PublisherDOI

• Nonlinearities and a pecking order in cross-border investment

  Journal of Banking & Finance · 2024-06-12 · 1 citations

  articleSenior authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Global Asset Allocation: Investing in a Time of Debt, Supply Shocks, and Quantitative Tightening

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2023-01-01

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Fed Listens Meets an Inflation Surge

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2023-01-01

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• A natural level of capital flows

  Journal of Monetary Economics · 2022 · 13 citations

  • Economics
  • Econometrics
  • Monetary economics
  PublisherDOI

• Kfstar and Portfolio Inflows: A Focus on Latin America

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2022

  • Political Science
  • Economics
  • Business
  PublisherDOI

• Preferred Habitats and Timing in the World's Safe Asset

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2022-01-01 · 2 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Stephanie E. Curcuru

  Federal Reserve

  149 shared

• Christian Leuz

  112 shared

• Karl V. Lins

  University of Utah

  104 shared

• Veronica Cacdac Warnock

  University of Virginia

  88 shared

• John D. Burger

  Loyola University Maryland

  81 shared

• Charles R. Thomas

  Dartmouth–Hitchcock Medical Center

  58 shared

• René M. Stulz

  55 shared

• Bong‐Chan Kho

  Seoul National University

  53 shared

Education

• Ph.D.

  University of Virginia--Darden Business School