About

Lili Xia is an Assistant Research Professor in the Atmospheric Science Group within the Department of Environmental Sciences. Her research focuses on building connections between climate sciences and impact study groups, aiming to assess climate impacts across regions and understand how different future climate scenarios—such as global warming, solar radiation modification, and nuclear conflict—affect the surface environment. She studies the impacts of climate change on vegetation and agriculture, exploring the interactions between vegetation and the climate system. Her work investigates how the climate system responds to large-scale perturbations with extra aerosols entering the stratosphere, including volcano eruptions, sulfate aerosol injection climate interventions, wildfires, and nuclear conflicts. She examines how additional aerosols alter the radiation budget, temperature, hydrological cycle, and surface environment, with the goal of understanding climate system sensitivity, feedback mechanisms, and long-term dynamics. Xia explores the potential impacts of sulfate aerosol injection (SAI) as a climate intervention to mitigate anthropogenic warming, analyzing its effects on temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and atmospheric chemistry using models like the Community Earth System Model. Additionally, her research includes studying the hypothetical impacts of nuclear conflicts on the climate system, such as soot injection leading to a dark, cold, and dry environment, and evaluating the consequences for global food security through collaborations with AgMIP and Fish-MIP. Her educational background includes a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Rutgers University, supervised by Alan Robock, and a Master’s degree from Peking University. Her work contributes to understanding climate resilience, geoengineering implications, and the broader environmental and societal impacts of climate interventions and extreme events.

Research topics

• Political Science
• Economics
• Environmental science
• Ecology
• Biology
• Climatology
• Natural resource economics
• Meteorology
• Geology
• Geography
• Business
• Atmospheric sciences
• International trade
• Physics
• Law and economics
• Environmental protection
• Agricultural economics
• Oceanography
• Law

Selected publications

• Food trade disruption after global catastrophes

  Earth System Dynamics · 2025-09-30 · 3 citations

  articleOpen accessCorresponding

  Abstract. The global food trade system is resilient to minor disruptions but vulnerable to major ones. Major shocks can arise from global catastrophic risks, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (e.g. nuclear war) or global catastrophic infrastructure loss (e.g. due to severe geomagnetic storms or a global pandemic). We use a network model to examine how these two scenarios could impact global food trade, focusing on wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice, accounting for about 60 % of global calorie intake. Our findings indicate that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, with soot emissions equivalent to a major nuclear war between India and Pakistan (37 Tg), could severely disrupt trade, causing most countries to lose the vast majority of their food imports (50 %–100 % decrease), primarily due to the main exporting countries being heavily affected. Global catastrophic infrastructure loss with a comparable impact on yields as the abrupt sunlight reduction has a more homogeneous distribution of yield declines, resulting in most countries losing up to half of their food imports (25 %–50 % decrease). Thus, our analysis shows that both scenarios could significantly impact the food trade. However, the abrupt sunlight reduction scenario is likely more disruptive than global catastrophic infrastructure loss regarding the effects of yield reductions on food trade. This study underscores the vulnerabilities of the global food trade network to catastrophic risks and the need for enhanced preparedness.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Microbial therapeutics for cancer: emerging strategies and biomedical applications

  Chemical Communications · 2025-01-01 · 2 citations

  review

  Advancements in synthetic biology and nanotechnology have propelled engineered microorganisms to the forefront as an emerging platform for cancer therapy. These microorganisms possess unique advantages, such as rapid proliferation, ease of genetic manipulation, and intrinsic tumor-targeting properties. Upon colonization of tumor sites, they can be programmed to release therapeutic agents or immunomodulatory factors, thereby remodeling the tumor microenvironment and enhancing antitumor efficacy. When integrated with nanotechnology and smart control systems, engineered microorganisms enable precise drug delivery and spatiotemporal regulation of therapeutic functions. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the design, functionalization, and biomedical applications of engineered microorganisms in oncology. The article focuses on cutting-edge strategies, such as genetic editing and surface modification, to enhance microbial specificity, immunocompatibility, and therapeutic potential. It systematically discusses the applications of these microorganisms across various treatment modalities, emphasizing their capacity to boost immune responses and deliver drugs with high precision. Moreover, this review critically examines the current challenges that impede clinical translation and underscores the necessity of interdisciplinary integration. Collectively, engineered microorganisms represent a transformative approach in the development of next-generation cancer therapies, offering innovative solutions to overcome the limitations of conventional treatment paradigms and paving the way for personalized, adaptive oncological interventions.

  PublisherDOI

• Key Gaps in Models' Physical Representation of Climate Intervention and Its Impacts

  Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · 2025-06-01 · 4 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a potential method to ameliorate some negative effects of climate change. However, unquantified uncertainties in physical and environmental impacts of SRM impede informed debate and decision making. Some uncertainties are due to lack of understanding of processes determining atmospheric effects of SRM and/or a lag in development of their representation in models, meaning even high‐quality model intercomparisons will not necessarily reveal or address them. Although climate models at multiple scales are advancing in complexity, there are specific areas of uncertainty where additional model development (often requiring new observations) could significantly advance understanding of SRM's effects, and improve our ability to assess and weigh potential risks against those of choosing to not use SRM. We convene expert panels in the areas of atmospheric science most critical to understanding the three most widely discussed forms of SRM. Each identifies three key modeling gaps relevant to either stratospheric aerosols, cirrus, or low‐altitude marine clouds. Within each area, key challenges remain in capturing impacts due to complex interactions in aerosol physics, atmospheric chemistry/dynamics, and aerosol‐cloud interactions. Across all three, in addition to arguing for more observations, the panels argue that model development work to either leverage different capabilities of existing models, bridge scales across which relevant processes operate, or address known modeling gaps could advance understanding. By focusing on these knowledge gaps we believe the modeling community could advance understanding of SRM's physical risks and potential benefits, allowing better‐informed decision‐making about whether and how to use SRM.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Effects of solar radiation modification on precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia: Insights from the GeoMIP G6 experiments

  Advances in Climate Change Research · 2025-04-23 · 10 citations

  articleOpen access

  Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed to reduce global temperatures by reflecting more solar radiation into space, but its effects on precipitation extremes across Southeast Asia remain uncertain. This study evaluates the impacts of two SRM strategies on precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia, using the multi-model ensemble mean from five climate models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), two SRM approaches are tested: injecting sulfur dioxide (G6sulfur) into the stratosphere and reducing the solar constant (G6solar) to maintain radiative forcing at the level of a moderate-emission scenario (SSP245). Bilinear interpolation and linear scaling were used to downscale and bias-correct daily precipitation data before calculating precipitation extreme indices, respectively. The results show that G6sulfur causes more regional variation in annual total and mean wet day precipitation, the average daily precipitation on days with ≥1 mm rainfall, compared to G6solar. In areas like central Borneo, northern mainland Southeast Asia, and eastern Indonesia, the annual maximum 1-d precipitation per year is projected to increase by 30%–50% under SSP585 relative to the historical 1995–2014 baseline period but this rise could be reduced to around 20% by SSP245, G6sulfur, or G6solar. G6sulfur has less influence on continuous wet and dry spells than G6solar, yielding results closer to SSP585. Both SRM strategies lower the projected increase in heavy precipitation days, except in areas like East Coast Peninsular Malaysia, Nusantara Indonesia, and East Timor. In conclusion, SRM may effectively mitigate increases in extreme precipitation events in most of Southeast Asia, but G6solar provides a more consistent reduction, while G6sulfur shows more complex spatial responses.

  PublisherDOI

• Weather and Climate Extremes Drive Grain Yield Reductions and Economic Losses in China

  Research Square · 2025-01-29

  preprintOpen access
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Maize Yield Changes Under Sulfate Aerosol Climate Intervention Using Three Global Gridded Crop Models

  Earth s Future · 2025-02-01 · 4 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract As the severity of climate change and its associated impacts continue to worsen, schemes for artificially cooling surface temperatures via planetary albedo modification are being studied. The method with the most attention in the literature is stratospheric sulfate aerosol intervention (SAI). Placing reflective aerosols in the stratosphere would have profound impacts on the entire Earth system, with potentially far‐reaching societal impacts. How global crop productivity would be affected by such an intervention strategy is still uncertain, and existing evidence is based on theoretical experiments or isolated modeling studies that use crop models missing key processes associated with SAI that affect plant growth, development, and ultimately yield. Here, we utilize three global gridded process‐based crop models to better understand the potential impacts of one SAI scenario on global maize productivity. Two of the crop models that simulate diffuse radiation fertilization show similar, yet small increases in global maize productivity from increased diffuse radiation. Three crop models show diverse responses to the same climate perturbation from SAI relative to the reference future climate change scenario. We find that future SAI implementation relative to a climate change scenario benefits global maize productivity ranging between 0% and 11% depending on the crop model. These production increases are attributed to reduced surface temperatures and higher fractions of diffuse radiation. The range across model outcomes highlights the need for more systematic multi‐model ensemble assessments using multiple climate model forcings under different SAI scenarios.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Stratospheric aerosol climate intervention could reduce crop nutritional value

  Environmental Research Letters · 2025-11-01

  articleOpen access

  Abstract The deliberate addition of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere to form reflective sulfate aerosols, reflect sunlight, and reduce surface temperatures is increasingly being considered as an option for minimizing the impacts of climate change. This strategy would create an unprecedented climate where the relationship between surface temperature and carbon dioxide concentration is decoupled. The implications of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) for global crop protein concentrations have not yet been explored. While elevated CO 2 concentrations are expected to reduce crop protein, higher temperatures may increase crop protein concentrations. Here we report changes of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat protein concentrations under a medium emissions climate change scenario and a SAI scenario to maintain global average temperatures at 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels, as simulated by three global gridded crop models. We show that using SAI to offset surface temperature increases would create decreases in the global protein concentrations of maize and rice, with minimal impact on wheat and soybean. Some already protein-deficient and malnourished nations that rely heavily on these crops to meet protein demands would show large decreases in protein intake under SAI with the current diet pattern, which could exacerbate their nutrient scarcity. The range of results between crop models highlights the need for a more comprehensive analysis using additional crop models, climate models, a broader range of climate intervention scenarios, and advancements in crop models to better represent protein responses to climate changes.

  PublisherDOI

• Accessible Climate and Impact Model Output for Studying the Human and Environmental Impacts of Nuclear Conflict

  2025-10-03 · 2 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  ABSTRACT Nuclear winter refers to the suite of physical and biological consequences that may follow nuclear conflict, particularly the cooling and darkening of Earth's surface due to black carbon soot in the upper atmosphere. While the associated changes in temperature, precipitation, and food system productivity have been the subject of climate modelling for decades, the outputs of models used to project these effects are stored in large files with formats unfamiliar to the broader research community. This paper introduces a standardized, user‐friendly repository of simulated nuclear conflict climate impact data designed to lower barriers for non‐specialist researchers. The data product provides simplified, spreadsheet‐ready datasets derived from established Earth System Model simulations and includes variables relevant to human and environmental impacts: temperature, precipitation, ultraviolet radiation, crop yields, fish catch, and sea ice thickness for a range of nuclear conflict scenarios. This repository aims to facilitate interdisciplinary research into the long‐term consequences of nuclear detonations to support policy development.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Adapting agriculture to climate catastrophes: the nuclear winter case

  Environmental Research Letters · 2025-04-23 · 5 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract Following a nuclear war, destruction would extend well beyond the blast zones due to the onset of a nuclear winter that can devastate the biosphere, including agriculture. Understanding the damage magnitude and preparing for the folly of its occurrence are critical given current geopolitical tensions. We developed and applied a framework to simulate global crop production under a nuclear winter using the Cycles agroecosystem model, incorporating ultraviolet (UV)-B radiation effects on plant growth and adaptive selection of crop maturity types (shorter cycle the lower the temperature). Using maize ( Zea maize L.) as a sentinel crop, we found that annual maize production could decline from 7% after a small-scale regional nuclear war with 5 Tg soot injection, to 80% after a global nuclear war with 150 Tg soot injection, with recovery taking from 7 to 12 years. UV-B damage would peak 6–8 years post-war and can further decrease annual maize production by 7%. Over the recovery period, adaptive selection of maize maturity types to track changing temperatures could increase production by 10% compared to a no-adaptation strategy. Seed availability may become a critical adaptation bottleneck; this and prior studies might underestimate food production declines. We propose that adaptation must include the development of Agricultural Resilience Kits consisting of region- and climate-specific seed and technology packages designed to buffer against uncertainty while supply chains recover. These kits would be congenial with the transient conditions during the recovery period, and would also be applicable to other catastrophes affecting food production.

  PublisherDOI

• Impacts on Indian Agriculture Due To Stratospheric Aerosol Intervention Using Agroclimatic Indices

  Earth s Future · 2025-01-01 · 9 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract Climate change poses significant threats to global agriculture, impacting food quantity, quality, and safety. The world is far from meeting crucial climate targets, prompting the exploration of alternative strategies such as stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) to reduce the impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of SAI on rice and wheat production in India, a nation highly vulnerable to climate change given its substantial dependence on agriculture. We compare the results from the Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection‐1.5°C (ARISE‐SAI‐1.5) experiment, which aims to keep global average surface air temperatures at 1.5°C above preindustrial in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2‐4.5 (SSP2‐4.5) global warming scenario. Yield results show ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 leads to higher production for rainfed rice and wheat. We use 10 agroclimatic indices during the vegetative, reproductive, and ripening stages to evaluate these yield changes. ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 benefits rainfed wheat yields the most, compared to rice, due to its ability to prevent rising winter and spring temperatures while increasing wheat season precipitation. For rice, SSP2‐4.5 leads to many more warm extremes than the control period during all three growth stages and may cause a delay in the monsoon. ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 largely preserves monsoon rainfall, improving yields for rainfed rice in most regions. Even without the use of SAI, adaptation strategies such as adjusting planting dates could offer partial relief under SSP2‐4.5 if it is feasible to adjust established rice‐wheat cropping systems.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Recent grants

• UNS: Collaborative Research: Global Agricultural Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Climate Intervention

  NSF · $320k · 2020–2024

Frequent coauthors

• Alan Robock

  Rutgers Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights

  80 shared

• Simone Tilmes

  NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

  31 shared

• O. B. Toon

  Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics

  29 shared

• Jonas Jägermeyr

  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

  22 shared

• Charles Bardeen

  22 shared

• Sam S. Rabin

  Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory

  19 shared

• Lisha Shen

  Temasek Life Sciences Laboratory

  16 shared

• Ben Kravitz

  Indiana University Bloomington

  15 shared

Education

• B.S.

  Peking University

  2004

• M.S.

  Peking University

  2007

• M.A.

  Rutgers University - New Brunswick

  2012

• Ph.D., Atmospheric Sciences

  Rutgers University - New Brunswick

  2014

Awards & honors

• Nobel Peace Prize (2017)