About

Octavio Aburto is a professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego. His research focuses on Coastal Ecology, Conservation Ecology, Ecosystem Dynamics and Theory, Genomics, Metagenomics, and Bioinformatics, as well as Population and Community Ecology. He is involved in studying various aspects of marine ecosystems, emphasizing conservation and ecological dynamics. His work contributes to understanding the complexities of marine environments and supports efforts in ecosystem preservation and sustainable management.

Research topics

• Ecology
• Geography
• Business
• Computer Science
• Political Science
• Environmental resource management
• Environmental science
• Cartography
• Natural resource economics
• Economics
• Remote sensing
• Fishery

Selected publications

• Marine heatwaves drive range contraction and alternative states of kelp forests at their warm limit

  bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2025-10-17

  preprintOpen access

  Abstract Marine heatwaves are transforming ecosystems, yet their role in driving alternative states—and the conditions that enable these transitions—remains poorly understood. Using 30 years of satellite and underwater data, we assessed the impact of the 2014–2016 Pacific marine heatwaves on giant kelp forests ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) at their warm range limit in Mexico. By 2016, 88% of forests were lost, with limited recovery by 2023, including an 80 km range contraction at the southern edge. Surveys revealed three alternative states: replacement by heat-tolerant palm kelp ( Eisenia arborea ) in warmer regions; urchin barrens due to predator overfishing; and, unexpectedly, persistent giant kelp near the southern limit where high temperatures coincide with low human pressure. Pre-existing conditions, such as high urchin and palm kelp densities, shaped these outcomes. These findings show that responses to marine heatwaves are shaped by local ecological and human contexts, requiring tailored climate-adaptation strategies to promote resilience.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Ichthyoplankton species assemblages during the 2015–2016 El Niño in the southwest Gulf of California

  Journal of Plankton Research · 2025-04-03 · 4 citations

  article

  Abstract This study analyzed seasonal and interannual variations in larval fish abundance in Cabo Pulmo National Park (CPNP) from January 2015 to November 2017, encompassing the 2015–2016 El Niño and subsequent thermal relaxation, to examine the impacts of climate-driven events on larval fish abundance, diversity, and species richness in a no-take marine protected area. A total of 166 larval fish taxa were identified, spanning 59 families, 94 genera and 98 species. Dactyloscopidae spp. (relative frequency: 41.7%; abundance: 9.9%), Auxis spp. (32.3%, 7.3%), Abudefduf troschelii (24%, 4.7%), Syacium spp. (17.7%, 3.9%) and Tripterygiidae spp. (12.5%, 2.8%) were the most frequent and numerically dominant taxa, after excluding 13 mesopelagic and bathypelagic species not typically found in CPNP’s shallow waters as adults. Although larval fish assemblages responded to short-term seasonal fluctuations (quarterly and semi-annual), we found that fish larvae abundance, diversity and species richness (independently of their biogeographic and habitat affinity) declined during the 2015–2016 El Niño compared to both the period before El Niño and the subsequent thermal relaxation (June 2016–November 2017). These findings highlight their vulnerability to El Niño-driven oceanographic changes, with implications for the resilience of these populations in the context of a changing climate.

  PublisherDOI

• Marine Prosperity Areas: a framework for aligning ecological restoration and human well-being using area-based protections

  Frontiers in Marine Science · 2025-02-06 · 8 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Mechanisms for marine ecological protection and recovery, including area-based conservation tools like ‘Marine Protected Areas’ (MPAs) are necessary tools to reach the Aichi Target or the forthcoming 30x30 target set by the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Framework. However, full ecosystem recovery takes years to manifest and the idea that MPA protection alone will foster human well-being is frequently contradicted by socio-economic evidence. Therefore, a new framework for marine area-based conservation and ecosystem restoration that reconciles the discrepancies between ecological recovery and socio-economic growth timelines is needed to effectively meet global biodiversity conservation targets. We introduce the concept of ‘Marine Prosperity Areas,’ (MPpA) an area-based conservation tool that prioritizes human prosperity as opposed to passively relying on ecosystem recovery to catalyze social change and economic growth. This concept leverages a suite of tried-and-true community-based intervention and investment strategies to strengthen and expand access to environmental science, social goods and services, and the financial perks of the blue economy. This data-driven framework may be of interest to stakeholders who support traditional area-based conservation models, but also to those who have been historically opposed to MPAs or have been excluded from past conservation processes.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Mangroves support an estimated annual abundance of over 700 billion juvenile fish and invertebrates

  Communications Earth & Environment · 2025-04-17 · 25 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract Mangroves are a critical habitat that provide a suite of ecosystem services and support livelihoods. Here we undertook a global analysis to model the density and abundance of 37 commercially important juvenile fish and juvenile and resident invertebrates that are known to extensively use mangroves, by fitting expert-identified drivers of density to fish and invertebrate density data from published field studies. The numerical model predicted high densities throughout parts of Southeast and South Asia, the northern coast of South America, the Red Sea, and the Caribbean and Central America. Application of our model globally estimates that mangroves support an annual abundance of over 700 billion juvenile fish and invertebrates. While abundance at the early life-history stage does not directly equate to potential economic or biomass gains, this estimate indicates the critical role of mangroves globally in supporting fish and fisheries, and further builds the case for their conservation and restoration.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Corrigendum to “Mangrove preservation could have significantly reduced damages from Hurricane Otis on the coast of Guerrero, Mexico” [Sci. Total Environ. (2024), 177822]

  The Science of The Total Environment · 2025-01-01

  erratumOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• Operationalizing Nature Recovery to Market Outcomes

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• Marine protected areas for dive tourism

  Scientific Reports · 2025-02-11 · 19 citations

  articleOpen access

  Marine and coastal tourism deliver economic benefits to coastal communities that far surpass those generated by fisheries, yet its potential contribution to global marine conservation remains underexamined. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) help restore biodiversity and enhance nearby fisheries, but their direct tourism benefits are not well understood. Here, we estimate the global demand for recreational scuba dive tourism, map the distribution and protection status of all marine dive sites globally, and develop a bioeconomic model to estimate the revenue gains from upgrading unprotected dive sites to fully protected MPAs. We estimate that 33.1 million scuba dives occur annually in marine environments worldwide, with 70% taking place within MPAs. However, only 15% of these MPA-affiliated dive sites are highly or fully protected. We show that designating all unprotected recreational dive sites, representing less than 1% of the global ocean, as highly or fully protected MPAs would improve fish biomass and biodiversity while generating an additional US$2 billion per year in direct tourism revenue (not including economic multipliers). Importantly, 62% of marine diving currently occurs in developing countries, underscoring the potential for dive tourism to support both marine conservation and local livelihoods in regions where such benefits are most needed.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Global economic impact of scuba dive tourism

  Cell Reports Sustainability · 2025-07-01 · 11 citations

  articleOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Blue Spots: A Novel Framework to Leverage Non‐Extractive Economies for Ocean Conservation

  Conservation Letters · 2025-11-01

  articleOpen access

  ABSTRACT The concept of biodiversity hotspots has long guided spatial conservation planning. Although many marine‐protected areas (MPAs) overlap with ecological hotspots, they often face resistance when they overlook existing livelihoods. Non‐extractive economies in many coastal regions, such as dive tourism, already thrive but lack formal protection, leaving both ecosystems and local income vulnerable to degradation. We coined the concept of blue spots: spatial areas where socio‐economic conditions already favor conservation. Using Cabo Pulmo National Park as a benchmark, we applied a national‐scale spatial model across 392,000 km 2 territorial sea and identified 300 blue spots, including 30 high‐priority sites. Bioeconomic simulations show that protecting these areas could increase tourism revenues by more than 70% over a decade while avoiding the opportunity costs of business‐as‐usual degradation. These findings suggest that blue spots can accelerate conservation outcomes, reduce socio‐economic conflict, and deliver faster economic returns than conventional conservation strategies. Rather than requiring communities to transition away from extractive activities, blue spots offer a pragmatic pathway to scale fully protected MPAs by reinforcing existing ecotourism, community support, and infrastructure. Protecting what is already working today may be one of the most effective strategies to meet both ecological and socio‐economic goals.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• A warming ocean threatens mangrove restoration targets and deepens global inequities in ecosystem service losses^*

  Environmental Research Climate · 2025-08-27 · 2 citations

  articleOpen accessCorresponding

  Abstract Global efforts to restore mangrove coverage face a growing but underexplored threat from a warming ocean, jeopardizing the future benefits mangroves provide. Using high-resolution global data across 1° grid cells, we assess how climatic and socioeconomic factors influence mangrove dynamics. We find that mangroves are depleted in lower-income regions, but eventually restored as income rises. Similarly, mangroves in cooler areas may benefit from warming temperatures up to a threshold beyond which damage occurs. Although increasing wealth alone could have led to substantial global mangrove recovery by 2100, warming sea surface temperatures stall this progress—erasing the gains that would have occurred under socioeconomic change alone. By the end of the century, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 and Representative Concentration Pathway 7.0 scenarios, mangrove areas could be 150 000 hectares smaller than a no climate change baseline. We estimate annual welfare losses from reduced cultural, provisioning, and regulating services to reach 28 billion USD by 2100. Regional disparities are pronounced: Asia bears 65% of losses, followed by the Middle East and Africa (19%), Latin America and the Caribbean (13%), and OECD countries (3%).

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Brad Erisman

  NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center

  70 shared

• Fabio Favoretto

  Scripps Institution of Oceanography

  54 shared

• Alfredo Girón‐Nava

  World Economic Forum

  44 shared

• Catalina López‐Sagástegui

  Institute of the Americas

  37 shared

• Marcia Moreno‐Báez

  Tufts University

  36 shared

• Exequiel Ezcurra

  34 shared

• Andrew F. Johnson

  Heriot-Watt University

  33 shared

• Joy A. Kumagai

  Stanford University

  33 shared

Education

• PhD, Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation

  University of California San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography

  2009