About

Amir Sapkota is a professor and chair of the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the University of Maryland School of Public Health. His research group focuses on the intersection of climate change and human health, with particular emphasis on cardiopulmonary, renal, and diarrheal diseases. His work aims to understand how climate change impacts human health by examining the effects of extreme weather events, changes in plant phenology, and other environmental shifts. Sapkota's background includes a BS in Chemistry and Environmental Sciences from Clark University, a PhD in Environmental Health Sciences from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and post-doctoral training in Environmental Epidemiology from the International Agency for Research on Cancer. His research seeks to inform policy and develop public health adaptation strategies to minimize climate change-driven morbidity and mortality at local, national, and global levels. Notably, his team has collaborated with the Maryland Department of Health to produce the state's first Climate and Health Profile Report, highlighting the health impacts of increasing extreme weather events and disparities across different geographic and ethnic groups. Additionally, Sapkota has led international efforts to develop early warning systems for diarrheal diseases in the Asia-Pacific Region, aiming to provide actionable, location-specific warnings with seasonal to sub-seasonal lead times to enhance community resilience against climate-related health threats.

Research topics

• Environmental science
• Meteorology
• Environmental engineering
• Ecology
• Geology
• Geography
• Chemistry
• Oceanography
• Environmental chemistry
• Internal medicine
• Demography
• Environmental health
• Medicine
• Pediatrics

Selected publications

• The Economic Consequence of Increased Health Care Resource Utilization in Maryland Associated With a Major Wildfire Smoke Event

  CHEST Journal · 2026-03-01

  articleOpen access

  BACKGROUND: ) in Maryland in June 2023. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the economic and cardiopulmonary effects of migrating wildfire smoke exposure during June 2023 in Maryland? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: concentration (hotspot days) in June 2023 in Maryland relative to calendar-matched control days in 2018 and 2019. We also provided 10-year cost projections under different future wildfire scenarios and modeled the preventable burden using respirators. RESULTS: The final sample included 5,273 cardiopulmonary encounters. The total cost accrued by increased cardiopulmonary encounters during the 6 hotspot day exposure compared with control days was $2,435,513 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $62,452-$5,266,838). Under the expected scenario (2 wildfires in 10 years), the projected incremental cost of wildfire smoke-related cardiopulmonary encounters was $6,379,406 (95% UI, $122,412-$13,837,150). However, modeling the use of respirators with 50%, 75%, and 95% effectiveness by high-risk individuals was associated with an expected net cost saving of $758,274, $1,162,649, and $1,486,150, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Our results shows that a major medical system in Maryland experienced substantial health care economic burden over 6 days that was characterized by increased wildfire smoke. Because Maryland uses a fixed global budget system, our findings have implications for preventive strategies that mitigate economic burden incurred in the context of wildfire smoke events.

  PublisherDOI

• Understudied Climate Change Attributes and Health Threats.

  PubMed · 2026-06-01

  editorialOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Building climate-resilient and low-carbon health systems in Nepal: Insights from a policy document review and qualitative interviews with key stakeholders

  Public Health · 2025-10-23 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the health sector's progress on building a climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable health system in Nepal. The objectives were to identify specific challenges related to the World Health Organisation's (WHO's) ten-component operational framework and provide actionable insights to inform evidence-based strategies for health policymakers. STUDY DESIGN: Mixed-method design involving policy analysis and qualitative interviews. METHODS: This study conducted a desk-based review of policies relevant to climate and health, and conducted qualitative interviews with 12 stakeholders (government policymakers, private sector and civil society). Participants were purposively selected based on their expertise in climate change and health, ensuring diverse perspectives. The findings were systematically organised and analysed using the ten components of the WHO operational framework for building climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable health systems. RESULTS: Integration of evidence from the policy document review and the qualitative interviews showed that, despite a strong policy foundation supporting the transition to low-carbon, climate-resilient health systems, implementation remained unsatisfactory, primarily due to poor data, weak intersectoral collaboration, insufficient capacity and inadequate funding allocated to climate resilience within the health sector. Issues related to the framing of climate change as either an environmental or a public health problem across ministries, demonstrated by divergent views on establishing early warning and monitoring systems, significantly affected ownership and responsibility for implementing existing policies. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified the need to strengthen inter-ministerial and cross-disciplinary collaboration in addressing climate change as a risk multiplier across many sectors. Such collaboration would enable international development partners and allow the state government to appropriately allocate resources to address topical challenges, including capacity building, infrastructure development and the establishment of integrated mechanisms to support transition to a climate-resilient health system in Nepal.

  PublisherDOI

• Dengue dynamics, predictions, and future increase under changing monsoon climate in India

  Scientific Reports · 2025-01-21 · 33 citations

  articleOpen access

  The global burden of dengue disease is escalating under the influence of climate change, with India contributing a third of the total. The non-linearity and regional heterogeneity inherent in the climate-dengue relationship and the lack of consistent data makes it difficult to make useful predictions for effective disease prevention. The current study investigates these non-linear climate-dengue links in Pune, a dengue hotspot region in India with a monsoonal climate and presents a model framework for predicting both the near-term and future dengue mortalities. Dengue mortality and meteorological conditions over a twelve-year period (2004-2015) are analyzed using statistical tools and machine learning methods. Our findings point to a significant influence of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity on dengue mortality in Pune, at a time-lag of 2-5 months, providing sufficient lead time for an early warning targeted at curbing dengue outbreaks. We find that moderate rains spread over the summer monsoon season lead to an increase in dengue mortality, whereas heavy rains reduce it through the flushing effect, indicating the links between dengue and monsoon intraseasonal variability. Additionally, warm temperatures above 27°C and humidity levels between 60% and 78% elevate the risk of dengue. Based on these weather-dengue associations, we developed a machine-learning model utilizing the random forest regression algorithm. The dengue model yields a skillful forecast, achieving a statistically significant correlation coefficient of r = 0.77 and a relatively low Normalized Root Mean Squared Error score of 0.52 between actual and predicted dengue mortalities, at a lead time of two months. The model finds that the relative contributions of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity to dengue mortality in Pune are 41%, 39%, and 20%, respectively. We use the dengue model in conjunction with the climate change simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 for the future dengue mortality projections under a global warming scenario. In a changing climate, dengue-related mortality in Pune is projected to rise by 13% in the near future (2021-2040), 23-40% in the mid-century (2041-2060), and 30-112% in the late century (2081-2100) under low-to-high emission pathways in response to the associated increase in temperature and changes in monsoon rainfall patterns.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• The 2023 Canadian Wildfires and Risk of Hospitalization and Mortality Among Hemodialysis Patients in the United States

  Kidney International Reports · 2025-04-22 · 4 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Introduction: Smoke plumes from the 2023 Canadian wildfires severely impacted air quality across the Eastern and Midwestern USA. However, a comprehensive health impact assessment is lacking in this large region. We investigated the association between wildfire-related air pollutants and the risk of mortality and hospitalization among hemodialysis patients in 22 heavily impacted states in the Eastern and Midwestern USA. Methods: ) concentrations were assessed using satellite-derived smoke polygons and ground-based monitors. Daily number of all-cause deaths, all-cause hospitalizations, respiratory disease hospitalizations, and cardiovascular disease hospitalizations were counted for each hemodialysis clinic. Results: was associated with a 139% increase in same day all-cause mortality (RR: 2.39; 95% CI: 1.79-3.18), and a 33% increase in all-cause hospitalization (RR:1.33; 95% CI: 1.10-1.62). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that air pollution from the 2023 Canadian wildfires resulted in increased risk of mortality and hospitalization among hemodialysis patients in Eastern and Midwestern USA.

  PublisherDOI

• Assessing PM_2.5 pollution in the Northeastern United States from the 2023 Canadian wildfire smoke: an episodic study integrating air quality and health impact modeling with emissions and meteorological uncertainty analysis

  Environmental Research Letters · 2025-10-08

  articleOpen accessCorresponding

  Abstract Between June 6 and 8, 2023, wildfires in Quebec, Canada generated massive smoke plumes that traveled long distances and deteriorated air quality across the Northeastern United States (US). Surface daily PM 2.5 observations exceeded 100 µ g m −3 , affecting major cities such as New York City and Philadelphia, while many areas lacked PM 2.5 monitors, making it difficult to assess local air quality conditions. To address this gap, we developed a WRF-CMAQ-BenMAP modeling system to provide rapid, spatially continuous estimates of wildfire-attributable PM 2.5 concentrations and associated health impacts, particularly benefiting regions lacking air quality monitoring. CMAQ simulations driven by two wildfire emissions datasets and two meteorological drivers showed good agreement with PM 2.5 observations, with linear regression results of R 2 ∼0.6 and slope ∼0.9. We further quantified uncertainties introduced by varying emissions and meteorological drivers and found the choice of wildfire emissions dataset alone can alter PM 2.5 simulations by up to 40 µ g m −3 (∼40%). Short-term health impacts were evaluated using the BenMAP model. Validation against asthma-associated emergency department (ED) visits in New York State confirmed the framework’s ability to replicate real-world outcomes, with ED visits increased up to ∼40%. The modeling results identified counties most severely affected by wildfire plumes, the majority of which lack regulatory air quality monitors. Our approach highlights the value of integrated modeling for identifying vulnerable populations and delivering timely health burden estimates, regardless of local monitoring availability.

  PublisherDOI

• Comparison of Bio-meteorological index and temperature linked mortality: A case study from Ahmedabad city, India

  International Journal of Biometeorology · 2025-07-14 · 1 citations

  article
  PublisherDOI

• Characterizing the effects of extreme heat events on all-cause mortality: A case study in Ahmedabad city of India, 2002–2018

  Urban Climate · 2024-02-21 · 9 citations

  articleOpen access
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Spatiotemporal link between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extreme heat, and thermal stress in the Asia–Pacific region

  Scientific Reports · 2024-03-28 · 13 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Climate change is closely monitored and numerous studies reports increasing air temperature and weather extremes across the globe. As a direct consequence of the increase of global temperature, the increased heat stress is becoming a global threat to public health. While most climate change and epidemiological studies focus on air temperature to explain the increasing risks, heat strain can be predicted using comprehensive indices such as Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The Asia-Pacific region is prone to thermal stress and the high population densities in the region impose high health risk. This study evaluated the air temperature and UTCI trends between 1990 and 2019 and found significant increasing trends for air temperature for the whole region while the increases of UTCI are not as pronounced and mainly found in the northern part of the region. These results indicate that even though air temperature is increasing, the risks of heat stress when assessed using UTCI may be alleviated by other factors. The associations between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and heat stress was evaluated on a seasonal level and the strongest regional responses were found during December-January (DJF) and March-May (MAM).

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• The Impact of Extreme Heat Events on Occupational Heat-Related Illnesses 2000-2019

  ISEE Conference Abstracts · 2024-07-31

  articleOpen access
  PublisherDOI

Recent grants

• NIH Grant R03OH009598

  NIH · $154k · 2012

• NIH Grant R21ES021422

  NIH · $420k · 2016

• NRT-INFEWS: UMD Global STEWARDS (STEM Training at the Nexus of Energy, WAter Reuse and FooD Systems)

  NSF · $3.1M · 2018–2025

• Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Addressing Extreme Weather Related Diarrheal Disease Risks in the Asia Pacific Region

  NSF · $330k · 2020–2023

Frequent coauthors

• Chengsheng Jiang

  28 shared

• Amy R. Sapkota

  University of Maryland, College Park

  28 shared

• Franklin W. Maddux

  Fresenius Medical Care North America (United States)

  25 shared

• Peter Kotanko

  Renal Research Institute

  23 shared

• Mia Hashibe

  Huntsman Cancer Institute

  23 shared

• Raghu Murtugudde

  University of Maryland, College Park

  22 shared

• Yu-Chun Wang

  Chung Yuan Christian University

  18 shared

• Clifford S. Mitchell

  Maryland Department of Health

  15 shared

Education

• Post Doctoral Fellow

  Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

  2005

• PhD, Environmental Health

  Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

  2004

Awards & honors

• U.S. Department of States, 2017
• Council on Environment, Outstanding Young Faculty Award, 201…
• Delta Omega, Alpha Chapter, Honorary Public Health Society,…
• Research Training Fellowship Awardee, International Agency f…
• Cornelius W. Kruse Award for Outstanding Graduate Studies, J…