About

Guido Lorenzoni is a macroeconomist with interests in business cycles, international finance, monetary and fiscal policy, and financial crises. His research focuses on financial crises, sovereign debt, and the impact of housing wealth and household debt on aggregate consumption.

Research topics

• Market economy
• Monetary economics
• Economics
• Macroeconomics

Selected publications

• Macroeconomic Uncertainty, the ECB Monetary Policy Stance and their Communication

  Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) · 2026-01-01

  bookOpen access

  This paper assesses the ECB’s monetary policy stance and communication amid declining inflation, persistent uncertainty, and renewed external risks. It documents how trade-policy shocks and global spillovers affect inflation surprises, highlights substantial cross-country inflation heterogeneity within the euro area, and shows that common shocks generate uneven national responses. Using a novel multi-agent LLM framework, it evaluates ECB communication, revealing strengths during active policy adjustments but gaps in addressing inflation dispersion and uncertainty communication.

  PublisherOA PDF

• The Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences of Inflation

  Quarterly Review · 2026-03-18

  articleOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Ricardo J. Caballero (1959–)

  2025-01-01

  book-chapter1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Global Price Shocks and International Monetary Coordination

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Tariffs as Cost-Push Shocks: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01 · 3 citations

  articleOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• The Conduct of ECB Monetary Policy Under International Uncertainty

  Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) · 2025-01-01

  bookOpen access

  This paper examines ECB monetary policy amid rising international uncertainty. We focus on three global risks: renewed trade protectionism, euro appreciation, and US fiscal fragility. Using inflation forecasts and survey data, we evaluate the ECB’s evolving policy framework. A potential US fiscal crisis poses risks but also creates an opportunity for Europe to supply a global safe asset. We argue that a European Debt Agency issuing common debt could mitigate contagion and enhance Europe’s financial sovereignty

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Tariffs as Cost-Push Shocks: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-05-01 · 1 citations

  reportOpen access

  We study the optimal monetary policy response to the imposition of tariffs in a model with imported intermediate inputs.In a simple open-economy framework, we show that a tariff maps exactly into a cost-push shock in the standard closed-economy New Keynesian model, shifting the Phillips curve upward.We then characterize optimal monetary policy, showing that it partially accommodates the shock to smooth the transition to a more distorted long-run equilibrium-at the cost of higher short-run inflation.

  PublisherDOI

• Global Price Shocks and International Monetary Coordination

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  articleOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Global Price Shocks and International Monetary Coordination

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-05-01 · 4 citations

  reportOpen access

  Individual central banks respond to global supply shocks that transmit inflationary pressures-such as oil prices, shipping costs, and bottlenecks in global supply chains-taking these conditions as given.However, their combined global response determines global demand and, thus, the resulting global price pressure.This paper builds a simple monetary open economy model to explore the economic implications of this channel.We show that, following a negative world supply shock, uncoordinated monetary policy may be excessively loose.Our mechanism for this "expansionary bias" applies to an aggregate shock in a symmetric world economy of small open economies having no individual control over their terms of trade.In these ways, it is distinct from asymmetric shocks and terms-of-trade manipulation motives emphasized in the monetary coordination literature.

  PublisherDOI

• A Minimalist Model for the Ruble during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  American Economic Review Insights · 2023-08-31 · 11 citations

  article1st authorCorresponding

  This note isolates an overlooked economic force for the ruble to appreciate in response to international sanctions limiting exports to Russia. The intuition is that when Russians are unable to buy the mix of foreign goods they wish, foreign goods become less attractive, increasing demand for domestic goods. To reestablish an equilibrium, a real appreciation is needed to raise the relative price of domestic goods and incentivize imports from nonsanctioning countries. We also review well-known forces for depreciation. Our analysis emphasizes that the exchange rate is an inadequate signal of the welfare impact and of the effectiveness of sanctions. (JEL D74, E31, F14, F31, F51, P24, P33)

  PublisherDOI

Recent grants

• Unemployment

  NSF · $232k · 2006–2011

Frequent coauthors

• Veronica Guerrieri

  University of Chicago

  70 shared

• Luigi Bocola

  64 shared

• Fernando Broner

  Pompeu Fabra University

  56 shared

• Sergio L. Schmukler

  52 shared

• Iván Werning

  46 shared

• Fabio Feriozzi

  Universitat Jaume I

  41 shared

• Fabio Castiglionesi

  41 shared

• Joseph Vavra

  University of Chicago

  39 shared

Education

• Ph.D., Economics

  Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

  2001

Awards & honors

• Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship
• Fellow of the Econometric Society