About

Daniel E. Horton is an Associate Professor in the Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences at Northwestern University. He is also the co-chair of the Adapt Initiative at the Trienens Institute. Horton holds a Ph.D. in Geological Sciences from the University of Michigan, and his academic background includes a B.S. in Atmospheric Science from Texas A&M University and a B.S. in Physics from Tulane University. His research group, the Climate Change Research Group (CCRG), utilizes numerical models, environmental observations, statistical analyses, and machine learning techniques to investigate Earth's atmosphere and climate, focusing on questions related to extreme weather events, the societal and health impacts of anthropogenic climate change, green infrastructure and transportation tradeoffs, and the distribution of climate and air quality impacts across society. Horton teaches courses on sustainability, earth systems science, weather and climate physics, and earth system modeling.

Research topics

• Computer Science
• Environmental resource management
• Environmental science
• Biology
• Geology
• Geography
• Ecology
• Political Science
• Environmental health
• Medicine
• Physics
• Astrobiology
• Law
• Oceanography
• Environmental ethics
• Gerontology
• Economic growth
• Climatology
• Development economics
• Environmental planning
• Business
• Natural resource economics
• Economics
• Demography

Selected publications

• Ambient air quality and health impacts of PM _2.5 from US residential wood combustion

  Science Advances · 2026-01-23 · 1 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Residential wood combustion (RWC) is a primary heating fuel in just 2% of US homes. However, the 2023 release of the US Environmental Protection Agency’s National Emissions Inventory (NEI) found that RWC contributes ~28% of total wintertime fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) emissions, suggesting that ambient PM 2.5 concentrations could be substantially reduced if RWC were curtailed. Despite its contribution to PM 2.5 emissions, an assessment of the air quality, health, and distributional impacts of RWC using the updated NEI has not been performed. Here, we use a high-resolution (4 kilometers) air quality model and the updated NEI to evaluate wintertime RWC impacts over the contiguous United States. We find that RWC contributes 2.43 micrograms per cubic meter (21.9%) of winter population-weighted mean PM 2.5 concentrations, leading to ~8600 (confidence interval: 6500 to 9600) premature deaths annually. Moreover, nonwhite communities are disproportionately affected by RWC-related PM 2.5 and associated mortality, especially in urban areas. We suggest that policies targeting RWC could substantially reduce air pollution, improve health, and address distributional disparities.

  PublisherDOI

• The critical role of soil moisture in compound hazards

  Nature Geoscience · 2026-03-13

  article
  PublisherDOI

• Assessing the air quality, public health, and equity implications of an Advanced Clean Trucks policy for Illinois

  2025-03-10 · 1 citations

  preprintOpen accessSenior author

  Policies designed to reduce transportation emissions are known to be co-beneficial due to reductions in planet-warming greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and health-harmful air pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The growing recognition of persistent racial and ethnic disparities in air pollution exposure and associated health impacts has increased demand for policy interventions aimed at systematically reducing such inequities. Here, we use a regulatory-grade air quality model focused on the Chicago region to find that medium-and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) tailpipe emissions account for ~22% of the area's ambient NO2 concentrations. Exposure to MHDV-tailpipe NO2 in our domain is associated with 1,330 (95% confidence interval (CI): 330, 2000) annual premature deaths and 1,580 (95% CI:-310, 3870) new cases of pediatric asthma, disproportionately affecting census tracts with higher percentages of residents of color. Given the inequitable impacts of MHDV NO2 exposure, we also use our model to assess the air quality, health, and equity outcomes if a policy scenario based on California's Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) regulation were instantaneously adopted in Illinois. We find that ACT adoption would lead to ~48% of on-road MHDVs having zero tailpipe emissions by 2050; an instantaneous transition to this policy would reduce annual mean population-weighted NO2 concentrations by 0.98 ppb (-8.4%), resulting in reductions of 500 (95% CI:-120,-750) premature deaths and 600 (95% CI: 120,-1440) fewer new pediatric asthma cases annuallywith the largest health benefits observed in neighborhoods with higher percentages of residents of color. Our study highlights the benefits of implementing policy interventions focused on zero-emission MHDVs to address air pollution exposure and health impact disparities.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Author response for "Watts-to-wheel comparison of the air quality, health, and equity impacts of light- v. heavy-duty vehicle electrification in the U.S. Midwest"

  2025-07-30

  peer-reviewSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• Cascading land surface hazards as a nexus in the Earth system

  Science · 2025-06-26 · 30 citations

  review

  This Review synthesizes progress and outlines a new framework for understanding how land surface hazards interact and propagate as sediment cascades across Earth's surface, influenced by interactions among the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and solid Earth. Recent research highlights a gap in understanding these interactions on human timescales, given rapid climatic change and urban expansion into hazard-prone zones. We review how surface processes such as coseismic landslides and post-fire debris flows form a complex sequence of events that exacerbate hazard susceptibility. Moreover, innovations in modeling, remote sensing, and critical zone science can offer new opportunities for quantifying cascading hazards. Looking forward, societal resilience can increase by transforming our understanding of cascading hazards through advances in integrating data into comprehensive models that link across Earth systems.

  PublisherDOI

• Critical temperature thresholds for identifying vulnerability to heat-related excess cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

  medRxiv · 2025-09-02 · 1 citations

  preprintOpen access

  ABSTRACT Background Extreme heat is a known environmental hazard linked to increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality, yet most studies fail to evaluate both acute and long-term effects. We assessed heat-related CVD, and its subtypes: coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke, morbidity and mortality across multiple temporal scales, identifying critical temperature thresholds for short- and long-term exposure. Methods We analyzed neighborhood-level death and emergency department (ED) visit records for CVD in Chicago from 2011–2022, linked to sociodemographic characteristics and temperature and humidity estimates. Using generalized additive models with smooth splines, we estimated excess heat-related rates across daily, monthly, and annual temporal scales. We applied K-means clustering and principal component analysis to classify Chicago community areas by heat vulnerability. Results Higher temperatures were significantly associated with increased cardiovascular mortality across all temporal scales, but not morbidity. Daily maximum temperatures ≥101.3°F were linked to 0.098 excess CHD deaths per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.092–0.104, p=0.037), while a 3-day average ≥100.4°F corresponded to 0.109 excess CVD deaths per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.084–0.139, p < 0.001), which may lead to ≈3 daily CVD deaths in Chicago are heat-related during days above 100°F. Monthly associations were also seen for CHD mortality (3.30 excess deaths per 100,000, [95% CI: 2.91–3.66], p=0.001). No significant associations were found for MI or stroke. Mortality clustering revealed four distinct vulnerability profiles, with variation linked to socioeconomic and racial/ethnic characteristics. Conclusions We identified critical temperature thresholds associated with cardiovascular mortality across temporal and spatial scales. Findings support targeted public health interventions, including heat warning systems and adaptive strategies, tailored to community vulnerability.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions

  UNC Libraries · 2025-06-26

  articleOpen access

  BACKGROUND: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions. METHODS: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies. RESULTS: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting. DISCUSSION: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.

  PublisherDOI

• The effects of heat stress on the ovary, follicles, and oocytes: a systematic review

  Biology of Reproduction · 2025-07-08 · 5 citations

  review

  Climate change is driving significant environmental changes with profound implications for human health, including fertility. Although the detrimental effects of heat on spermatogenesis are well documented, the impact of elevated temperatures on ovaries and female fertility remains less explored. This systematic review evaluates the effects of elevated temperature exposures (heat stress, HS) on the ovary, follicles, and oocytes across a range of mammalian species. Drawing from both in vivo and in vitro studies, we synthesize findings that show HS can impair ovarian function by disrupting reproductive hormone profiles, reducing ovarian size and weight, altering ovarian histology, and inducing autophagy. At the cellular level, HS leads to increased granulosa cell apoptosis, impaired folliculogenesis, and decreased oocyte quality and developmental competence. However, inconsistencies across studies highlight the influence of experimental variation, including differences in species, timing, intensity, and duration of HS exposure. While many studies report detrimental effects, a few suggest possible adaptive responses under certain conditions. Finally, we review emerging interventions, including antioxidants, hormone supplementation, and bioactive compounds, that aim to counteract HS-related reproductive damage. Despite progress, further research is urgently needed to define conserved molecular pathways, optimize experimental models, and inform clinical strategies to protect fertility and reproductive lifespan in a warming world.

  PublisherDOI

• Heat and hearts: computational phenotyping of cardiovascular disease during extreme heat events using electronic health record data

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Assessing the air quality, public health, and equity implications of an Advanced Clean Trucks policy for Illinois

  Frontiers of Earth Science · 2025-03-18 · 3 citations

  articleSenior author
  PublisherDOI

Recent grants

• CAREER: CAS-Climate: Neighborhood-scale Assessment of the Air Quality Co-Benefits and Tradeoffs of Transportation Electrification

  NSF · $457k · 2023–2028

Frequent coauthors

• Jordan Schnell

  Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

  73 shared

• Noah S. Diffenbaugh

  Stanford University

  56 shared

• Deepti Singh

  Washington State University Vancouver

  38 shared

• Justin Mankin

  Dartmouth College

  33 shared

• Anastasia Montgomery

  Northwestern University

  25 shared

• Daniel L. Swain

  University of California, Los Angeles

  23 shared

• Ryan D. Harp

  22 shared

• Zachariah Adelman

  18 shared

Labs

• Daniel E. Horton's LabPI

  Not provided

Education

• Ph.D., Geology

  University of California, Berkeley

  1994

• M.S., Geology

  University of California, Berkeley

  1991

• B.S., Geology

  University of California, Santa Barbara

  1988