Gabriel A. Vecchi
· Knox Taylor Professor of Geosciences, Director (HMEI) and Deputy Director (CIMES)Princeton University · Geosciences
Active 1974–2024
About
Gabriel A. Vecchi is the Knox Taylor Professor of Geosciences at Princeton University, where he also serves as the Director of the High Meadows Environmental Institute (HMEI) and the Deputy Director of the Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System (CIMES). His research focuses on climate science, including extreme weather events, hurricanes, mechanisms of precipitation variability and change, ocean-atmosphere interaction, and detection and attribution. He is involved in investigating how climate change affects phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and European weather, and his work has contributed to understanding the impacts of climate change on hurricanes and other extreme weather events.
Research topics
- Virology
- Environmental health
- Biology
- Geography
- Medicine
- Materials science
- Physics
- Meteorology
- Internal medicine
- Environmental science
- Climatology
- Atmospheric sciences
- Geology
- Oceanography
Selected publications
Earth System Dynamics · 2022 · 310 citations
- Climatology
- Environmental science
- Meteorology
Abstract. Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52∘ N, 119–123∘ W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 ∘C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 ∘C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 ∘C of global warming (0.8 ∘C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.
Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Science · 2020 · 337 citations
- Geography
- Environmental health
- Virology
Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.
The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2020 · 599 citations
- Environmental health
- Medicine
- Biology
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021-2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.
Recent grants
Frequent coauthors
- 210 shared
Hiroyuki Murakami
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
- 148 shared
Thomas L. Delworth
University of Miami
- 121 shared
Gabriele Villarini
Princeton University
- 94 shared
Wenchang Yang
Princeton University
- 86 shared
Xiaosong Yang
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
- 82 shared
Andrew T. Wittenberg
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
- 82 shared
Brian J. Soden
University of Miami
- 79 shared
Liwei Jia
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Labs
Education
- 2000
Ph.D., School of Oceanography
University of Washington
- 1999
M.S., Applied Mathematics
University of Washington
- 1996
M.S., School of Oceanography
University of Washington
- 1994
B.A., Mathematics
Rutgers University New Brunswick
Awards & honors
- Honored at American Geophysical Union 2024 Fall Meeting
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