About

I am a Professor of Political Science at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California at San Diego. My main area of research is comparative state-building dynamics.

Research topics

• Sociology
• Medicine
• Political Science
• Computer Science
• Social Science
• Economics
• Development economics
• Economic growth
• Demography
• Demographic economics
• Geography
• Psychology
• Socioeconomics
• History
• Virology
• Social psychology
• Law
• Economic history

Selected publications

• Intercommunal Warfare and Ethnic Peacemaking: The Dynamics of Urban Violence in Central Asia, by Joldon Kutmanaliev, McGill-Queens University Press, 2023, 273 pp, $120 (hardcover), ISBN 9780228016830.

  Nationalities Papers · 2026-02-20

  article1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Ethnic stacking in the Russian armed forces? Findings from a leaked dataset

  Post-Soviet Affairs · 2025-03-28 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access1st author

  The ethnic composition of the Russian armed forces has been a source of popular speculation since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The literature suggests that in militaries where promotions occur on non-merit characteristics – such as ethnicity – a result can be lower morale, less information sharing, weaker cohesion, and ultimately inferior battlefield performance. Although studies of the “ethnic factor” in the imperial and Soviet armies abound, scholars lack microdata on the modern Russian military. Using a leaked dataset of information on almost 120,000 Russian service members, we show how ethnic inequalities and group hierarchies were reflected in the manpower of the Russian armed forces that invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• The Minsk Game

  Public Choice · 2025-02-24 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Abstract Why did the Minsk Accords fail to prevent the current Ukraine War? Standard explanations for the diplomatic failure center on irreconcilable commitment problems between Moscow and Washington: both revisionist with respect to the other, neither able to credibly promise non-involvement in the other’s perceived sphere of influence, and both capable of recruiting local allies within Ukraine. This account omits relevant historical context related to the demographic legacy of the Soviet Union. To shed light on the kinds of policies that would be most effective at “buying peace” in some dimly-visible future, we analyze a simple model of domestic Ukrainian interest group politics.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Orthopedic Surgery <50 Days Following Covid-19 Infection Is Not Associated With Increased Postoperative Complications.

  PubMed · 2024-01-01 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access

  Background: Recent literature indicates that COVID-19 infection is a negative predictor of good outcomes following elective orthopedic surgery. However, the ideal timing of surgery after infection is unclear. The purpose of this study was to compare the rates of post-operative complications between those who underwent elective orthopedic surgery <50 days and >50 days after COVID-19 infection. Methods: This is a pilot study utilizing retrospective review of 28 adult subjects who underwent orthopedic surgery including 17 total-knee arthroplasties, seven total-hip arthroplasties, three posterior spinal fusions, and one common peroneal decompression. These subjects were indicated for an orthopedic surgery that was canceled due to positive pre-operative COVID-19 testing. The subjects were rescheduled for surgery between March 2020-December 2022.There were two cohorts: those who underwent surgery <50 days after COVID-19 infection (n=14) and subjects who underwent surgery >50 days after COVID-19 infection (n=14). Demographics, preoperative comorbid conditions, and post-operative complications were recorded and compared. Results: There were no significant demographic differences between the two cohorts with respect to age, body mass index, weight, and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade. The two cohorts had no significant difference in pre-existing comorbid conditions with hypertension and peripheral vascular disease being the most common comorbidities overall. There were six postoperative complications involving four subjects within 90 days of surgery. One subject developed a postoperative pulmonary embolism (PE), and another subject developed a surgical-site infection, sepsis, and renal failure; both in the >50 days cohort. One patient in each cohort required reoperation. There was no difference in postoperative complications such as deep vein thrombosis (DVT), PE, sepsis, renal failure, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission between the two cohorts. Conclusion: .

  PublisherOA PDF

• CONSOLIDATING A WEAK STATE AFTER CIVIL WAR:

  University of Pittsburgh Press eBooks · 2024-02-13 · 1 citations

  book-chapter1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• “The Russian Spring” (Eastern Ukraine)

  Cambridge University Press eBooks · 2023-01-05

  book-chapterSenior author

  Chapter 6 is the second part of our analytic narrative. We describe coordination failure by Russian-speaking elites trying to decide whether or not they wanted to try to emulate Crimea. The chapter contrasts the orderly spectacle of irredentist annexation in Crimea with the chaotic “Russian Spring” across Eastern and Southern Ukraine. The existential question was whether the interstate border would change again. The Party of Regions had imploded, so there was no mechanism of transregional cooperation. Dozens of Russian-speaking communities each had to decide locally whether sedition or loyalty to Kyiv would prevail. Russia attempted, but failed, to use a television narrative to encourage established elites in the East to back secessionist uprisings. Sedition did not really get off the ground in most Russian-speaking communities, as pro-Ukraine militias became dominant in the streets. By early May, anti-Kyiv protests died down most everywhere – except in the Donbas.

  PublisherDOI

• Formalizing a Story of Why Putin Chose War

  2023-01-05

  otherSenior author

  A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.

  PublisherDOI

• Irredentist Annexation (Crimea)

  Cambridge University Press eBooks · 2023-01-05

  book-chapterSenior author

  Chapter 5 is the first part of our analytic narrative. We describe equilibrium selection in the immediate aftermath of the Maidan events. The first theater was Crimea. The question was whether Russian-speaking elites in peripheral communities would accept the first storyline (“Dignity”) and remain loyal to the Ukrainian state, or accept the second storyline (“coup”) and opt for sedition. Elites in Crimea coordinated rapidly on sedition. The only militias in the streets were pro-Russia (though a brave pro-Ukraine demonstration by Crimean Tatars is described). Russian soldiers arrived to secure parliament. The Party of Regions networks served a coordinating function, repurposing state institutions to legitimize the Russian presence and ensuring institutional continuity. Crimeans voted, Russia claimed self-determination, and the government in Kyiv was checkmated. Coordinated sedition was a fait accompli.

  PublisherDOI

• Before Maidan

  Cambridge University Press eBooks · 2023-01-05

  book-chapterSenior author

  Chapter 3 tests our theory against the historical record. It introduces readers to a few contentious episodes in recent Ukrainian history, focusing on three major crises between 1991 and 2014. Our analytic narrative emphasizes that Russian-speaking communities can embrace “the Russian narrative” at critical junctures theatrically, in order to maximize their bargaining leverage or demonstrate an ability to destabilize Ukrainian national politics, and then be bought off. In each of three case studies, we document Russian-speaking elites bargaining in strikingly similar ways: provoking crises at the center, knowing that Russias military casts a shadow over regional bargaining dynamics. The Party of Regions is described as a machine for aggregating preferences across multiple constituencies with a strong base in the Donbas – the primary driver of the controversial language law of 2012.

  PublisherDOI

• A Theory of War Onset in Post-Soviet Eurasia

  Cambridge University Press eBooks · 2023-01-05 · 1 citations

  book-chapterSenior author

  Chapter 2 presents a statement of the book’s theory. The geography and demography of the post-Soviet space suggests a strategic game with three actors, all second-guessing each others strategies: peripheral elites in Russian-speaking communities, “national” elites in the capital, and elites in the Kremlin. The output of bargaining processes is the distribution of symbolic cultural goods. The game is played in two stages. In the first, inside Russian-speaking communities, elites attempt to coordinate to threaten to secede, or not. In the second stage, bargaining takes place between the capital and the potentially seditious community. If bargaining breaks down, the Russian government might intervene. We outline the analytic narrative structure that organizes the remainder of the book. The theory is formalized in a mathematical appendix (Appendix A).

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Dominique Arel

  University of Ottawa

  9 shared

• Konstantin Sonin

  5 shared

• Daniel Maliniak

  William & Mary

  4 shared

• Austin L. Wright

  3 shared

• Timothy K. Blauvelt

  3 shared

• Elaine K. Denny

  3 shared

• Jarnickae Wilson

  3 shared

• Caroline E. Schuster

  2 shared

Labs

• Jesse Driscoll LabPI

Education

• PhD, Political Science

  Stanford University

  2009

Awards & honors

• Best Book in the Social Sciences by the Central Eurasian Stu…
• Furniss Award