
John Colford
· Professor Emeritus, EpidemiologyVerifiedUniversity of California, Berkeley · Epidemiology and Community Health Sciences
Active 1989–2024
Research topics
- Medicine
- Environmental health
- Internal medicine
- Biology
- Computer Science
- Pathology
- Virology
- Geography
- Ecology
- Environmental engineering
- Emergency medicine
- Environmental science
- Psychology
- Microbiology
- Pediatrics
- Toxicology
- Economic growth
- Socioeconomics
- Statistics
- Economics
- Mathematics
- Environmental protection
- Immunology
- Chemistry
Selected publications
Child wasting and concurrent stunting in low- and middle-income countries
Nature · 2023 · 103 citations
- Environmental health
- Socioeconomics
- Medicine
. Prevailing methods to measure wasting rely on cross-sectional surveys that cannot measure onset, recovery and persistence-key features that inform preventive interventions and estimates of disease burden. Here we analyse 21 longitudinal cohorts and show that wasting is a highly dynamic process of onset and recovery, with incidence peaking between birth and 3 months. Many more children experience an episode of wasting at some point during their first 24 months than prevalent cases at a single point in time suggest. For example, at the age of 24 months, 5.6% of children were wasted, but by the same age (24 months), 29.2% of children had experienced at least one wasting episode and 10.0% had experienced two or more episodes. Children who were wasted before the age of 6 months had a faster recovery and shorter episodes than did children who were wasted at older ages; however, early wasting increased the risk of later growth faltering, including concurrent wasting and stunting (low length-for-age z-score), and thus increased the risk of mortality. In diverse populations with high seasonal rainfall, the population average weight-for-length z-score varied substantially (more than 0.5 z in some cohorts), with the lowest mean z-scores occurring during the rainiest months; this indicates that seasonally targeted interventions could be considered. Our results show the importance of establishing interventions to prevent wasting from birth to the age of 6 months, probably through improved maternal nutrition, to complement current programmes that focus on children aged 6-59 months.
American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · 2021 · 88 citations
- Psychology
- Medicine
- Biology
BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses show that small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNSs) reduce child stunting and wasting. Identification of subgroups who benefit most from SQ-LNSs may facilitate program design. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify study-level and individual-level modifiers of the effect of SQ-LNSs on child growth outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a 2-stage meta-analysis of individual participant data from 14 randomized controlled trials of SQ-LNSs provided to children 6-24 mo of age (n = 37,066). We generated study-specific and subgroup estimates of SQ-LNS compared with control and pooled the estimates using fixed-effects models. We used random-effects meta-regression to examine study-level effect modifiers. In sensitivity analyses, we examined whether results differed depending on study arm inclusion criteria and types of comparisons. RESULTS: SQ-LNS provision decreased stunting (length-for-age z score < -2) by 12% (relative reduction), wasting [weight-for-length (WLZ) z score < -2] by 14%, low midupper arm circumference (MUAC) (<125 mm or MUAC-for-age z score < -2) by 18%, acute malnutrition (WLZ < -2 or MUAC < 125 mm) by 14%, underweight (weight-for-age z score < -2) by 13%, and small head size (head circumference-for-age z score < -2) by 9%. Effects of SQ-LNSs generally did not differ by study-level characteristics including region, stunting burden, malaria prevalence, sanitation, water quality, duration of supplementation, frequency of contact, or average compliance with SQ-LNS. Effects of SQ-LNSs on stunting, wasting, low MUAC, and small head size were greater among girls than among boys; effects on stunting, underweight, and low MUAC were greater among later-born (than among firstborn) children; and effects on wasting and acute malnutrition were greater among children in households with improved (as opposed to unimproved) sanitation. CONCLUSIONS: The positive impact of SQ-LNSs on growth is apparent across a variety of study-level contexts. Policy-makers and program planners should consider including SQ-LNSs in packages of interventions to prevent both stunting and wasting.This trial was registered at www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO as CRD42019146592.
Environmental Science & Technology · 2020 · 66 citations
- Computer Science
- Environmental health
- Medicine
Infections with enteric pathogens impose a heavy disease burden, especially among young children in low-income countries. Recent findings from randomized controlled trials of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions have raised questions about current methods for assessing environmental exposure to enteric pathogens. Approaches for estimating sources and doses of exposure suffer from a number of shortcomings, including reliance on imperfect indicators of fecal contamination instead of actual pathogens and estimating exposure indirectly from imprecise measurements of pathogens in the environment and human interaction therewith. These shortcomings limit the potential for effective surveillance of exposures, identification of important sources and modes of transmission, and evaluation of the effectiveness of interventions. In this review, we summarize current and emerging approaches used to characterize enteric pathogen hazards in different environmental media as well as human interaction with those media (external measures of exposure), and review methods that measure human infection with enteric pathogens as a proxy for past exposure (internal measures of exposure). We draw from lessons learned in other areas of environmental health to highlight how external and internal measures of exposure can be used to more comprehensively assess exposure. We conclude by recommending strategies for advancing enteric pathogen exposure assessments.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases · 2020 · 52 citations
- Medicine
- Environmental health
- Pediatrics
BACKGROUND: We evaluated the impact of low-cost water, sanitation, handwashing (WSH) and child nutrition interventions on enteropathogen carriage in the WASH Benefits cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Bangladesh. METHODS: We analyzed 1411 routine fecal samples from children 14±2 months old in the WSH (n = 369), nutrition counseling plus lipid-based nutrient supplement (n = 353), nutrition plus WSH (n = 360), and control (n = 329) arms for 34 enteropathogens using quantitative PCR. Outcomes included the number of co-occurring pathogens; cumulative quantity of four stunting-associated pathogens; and prevalence and quantity of individual pathogens. Masked analysis was by intention-to-treat. RESULTS: 326 (99.1%) control children had one or more enteropathogens detected (mean 3.8±1.8). Children receiving WSH interventions had lower prevalence and quantity of individual viruses than controls (prevalence difference for norovirus: -11% [95% confidence interval [CI], -5 to -17%]; sapovirus: -9% [95%CI, -3 to -15%]; and adenovirus 40/41: -9% [95%CI, -2 to - 15%]). There was no difference in bacteria, parasites, or cumulative quantity of stunting-associated pathogens between controls and any intervention arm. CONCLUSIONS: WSH interventions were associated with fewer enteric viruses in children aged 14 months. Different strategies are needed to reduce enteric bacteria and parasites at this critical young age.
Environmental Health Perspectives · 2020 · 27 citations
- Environmental science
- Environmental health
- Toxicology
BACKGROUND: Inadequate access to safe drinking water remains a global health problem, particularly in rural areas. Boiling is the most commonly used form of point-of-use household water treatment (HWT) globally, although the use of bottled water in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is increasing rapidly. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the regional and seasonal prevalence of HWT practices (including bottled water use) in low-income rural areas in two Chinese provinces, evaluated the microbiological safety of drinking water and associated health outcomes, and estimated the air pollution burden associated with the use of solid fuels for boiling. METHODS: ) concentrations. RESULTS: ). DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that where boiling is already common and electricity access is widespread, the promotion of electricity-based boiling may represent a pragmatic stop-gap means of expanding safe water access until centralized, or decentralized, treated drinking water is available; displacing biomass use for water boiling could also reduce HAP concentrations and exposures. Our results also highlight the risks of increasing bottled water use in rural areas, and its potential to displace other sources of safe drinking water, which could in turn hamper efforts in China and other LMICs toward universal and affordable safe water access. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7124.
Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States
Nature Communications · 2020 · 402 citations
- Medicine
- Statistics
- Virology
Accurate estimates of the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection are critical to informing pandemic response. Confirmed COVID-19 case counts in the U.S. do not capture the total burden of the pandemic because testing has been primarily restricted to individuals with moderate to severe symptoms due to limited test availability. Here, we use a semi-Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy. We estimate 6,454,951 cumulative infections compared to 721,245 confirmed cases (1.9% vs. 0.2% of the population) in the United States as of April 18, 2020. Accounting for uncertainty, the number of infections during this period was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. 86% (simulation interval: 64-99%) of this difference is due to incomplete testing, while 14% (0.3-36%) is due to imperfect test accuracy. The approach can readily be applied in future studies in other locations or at finer spatial scale to correct for biased testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy to provide a more realistic assessment of COVID-19 burden.
Recent grants
NIH · $2.0M · 2007
NIH · $2.9M · 2007
Child health risks attributable to swimming in contaminated water at beaches in t
NIH · $154k · 2013–2015
NIH · $2.1M · 2012
Effects of sanitation on pathogen transmission and child health in Bangladesh
NIH · $2.2M · 2014–2019
Frequent coauthors
- 272 shared
Benjamin F. Arnold
Global Brain Health Institute
- 145 shared
Alan Hubbard
University of California, Berkeley
- 119 shared
Stephen P. Luby
Stanford University
- 114 shared
Jade Benjamin‐Chung
Stanford University
- 91 shared
Amy J. Pickering
- 83 shared
Ayşe Ercümen
North Carolina State University
- 77 shared
Andrew Mertens
Berkeley Public Health Division
- 71 shared
Clair Null
Mathematica Policy Research
Education
Diplomate (Board Certified), Internal Medicine
American Board of Internal Medicine
- 2006
Diplomate (Board Certified), Infectious Diseases
American Board of Internal Medicine
- 1996
PhD, Epidemiology
University of California Berkeley
- 1992
M.P.H, Public Health
University of California Berkeley
- 1985
MD, Medicine
Johns Hopkins School of Medicine
- 1981
B.S., Chemistry
Santa Clara University
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