About

Julian Alston is a Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Davis. His research focuses on the economics of agriculture, agricultural policy, and food policy. He has contributed to the understanding of supply and demand for agricultural products and has been involved in analyzing various aspects of agricultural policy and its impacts.

Research topics

• Political Science
• Economics
• Economic growth
• Business
• Geography
• Sociology
• Biology
• Industrial organization
• Finance
• Economic geography
• Agricultural economics
• Natural resource economics
• Economic policy
• Ecology
• Macroeconomics
• Public economics
• Microeconomics

Selected publications

• Climate change and perennial crop production: Evidence of yield impact and adaptation in California

  American Journal of Agricultural Economics · 2026-03-30

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Abstract Perennial crops are economically important. They contribute to food security, providing essential nutrients that are often lacking in annual crops, and provide additional environmental benefits compared with annual crops. Despite their importance, empirical research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation on perennial crops remains limited. We model the phenological characteristics of major perennial crops in California and take adaptation into consideration to estimate the effects of temperature and precipitation on yields in both the short run and long run. Our findings indicate that weather impacts vary across the four phenological phases—dormancy, bloom, fruit development, and fruit maturity. Specifically, warming during the dormancy phase reduces walnut yields and warming during the bloom phase reduces almond yields in both the short‐run and long‐run. These long‐run negative impacts suggest that adaptation has not offset the adverse effects of winter warming on these crops. On the other hand, warming in the fruit maturity phase positively affects almond yields, especially in the long run, suggesting that adaptation has taken advantage of rising temperatures to increase almond yields. Our findings provide valuable insights for targeted adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of perennial crop production in the face of climate change.

  PublisherDOI

• Food will be more affordable — if we double funds for agriculture research now

  Nature · 2025-12-09 · 3 citations

  articleOpen access
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Implications of Climate Change for Prices of Ultra-Premium Cabernet Sauvignon Wines From California

  Harvard Data Science Review · 2025-05-01 · 1 citations

  preprintOpen accessSenior author

  In 1980 the U.S. Government created American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) as a mechanism for wine producers to signal product quality and better capture the benefits from collective reputation associated with the location of production.The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of climate and vintage weather on wine prices and, hence, the potential for climate change to disrupt the role of AVAs in providing signals of varietal wine quality associated with places of production.Our analysis is based on a sample of secondary market auction prices for ultra-premium Cabernet Sauvignon wines from K&L Wine Merchants, each associated with a particular AVA and matched to spatially detailed weather data from PRISM.We derive estimates of the location-specific relationship between prices and weather and climate, and we use the estimates to compute the implied consequences for prices resulting from projected changes in climate over the remainder of the century.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Climate, weather, and collective reputation: Implications for California's wine prices and quality

  Journal of Wine Economics · 2025-05-01 · 8 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Abstract Wine is the most differentiated of all farm products, with much of the differentiation based on the location of production. In this paper, we estimate the effects of climate and vintage weather on California's varietal wine quality and prices. Our analysis is based on a sample of premium wines rated by Wine Spectator magazine between 1994 and 2022 and a comparable sample of secondary market auction prices from K&L Wine Merchants, each matched to spatially detailed weather data from PRISM. We find that extreme temperatures, particularly extremely hot temperatures, caused prices to decline. Absent additional adaptation, climate change will harm wine quality and disrupt quality signals from geographical indications in California's premier wine regions.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Unraveling the economic impact of wine counterfeiting: An analysis of the Sassicaia 2015 scandal and its consequences

  Journal of Wine Economics · 2024-11-01 · 2 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior authorCorresponding

  Abstract This paper examines the economic impact of wine counterfeiting, with a focus on the Sassicaia scandal, publicized in 2020, regarding counterfeit 2015 vintage bottles of the iconic Super Tuscan wine. Wine fraud, documented since ancient Rome, has evolved alongside the industry, with key developments such as the Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée system aiming to curb it. The paper briefly reviews three other significant modern cases of wine counterfeiting: the Hardy Rodenstock “Jefferson bottles” affair, the Brunello di Montalcino scandal, and Rudy Kurniawan’s counterfeit operation. It then shifts to a detailed analysis of the case of Sassicaia. We combine informal analysis using data plots and a formal difference-in-differences analysis to assess the market impact of the 2015 Sassicaia scandal. We find that, surprisingly, the scandal led to an increase in the price of authentic 2015 Sassicaia, perhaps driven by perceived rarity and media attention.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• R&D lags in economic models

  Economics of Innovation and New Technology · 2024-08-06 · 3 citations

  articleOpen accessCorresponding

  Quite different R&D lag structures predominate in studies of agricultural R&D compared with studies of R&D in other industries, and compared with studies of economic growth more broadly. Here we compare the main models and their implications using long-run data for U.S. agriculture. We reject the models predominantly used in studies of economic growth and industrial R&D both on prior grounds and using various statistical tests. The preferred model is a 50-year gamma lag distribution model. The estimated elasticity of agricultural MFP with respect to the knowledge stock is 0.21 and the implied marginal benefit–cost ratio is 18:1.

  PublisherDOI

• Slow Magic: Agricultural Versus Industrial R&D Lag Models

  Annual Review of Resource Economics · 2023-05-17 · 17 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  R&D is slow magic. It takes many years before research investments begin to affect productivity, but then they can affect productivity for a long time. Many economists get this wrong. Here, we revisit the conceptual foundations for R&D lag models used to represent the temporal links between research investments and impact, review prevalent practice, and document and discuss a range of evidence on R&D lags in agriculture and other industries. Our theory and evidence consistently support the use of longer lags with a different overall lag profile than is typically imposed in studies of industrial R&D and government compilations of R&D knowledge stocks. Many studies systematically fail to recognize the many years of investment and effort typically required to create a new technology and bring it to market and the subsequent years as the technology is diffused and adopted. Consequential distortions in the measures and economic understanding are implied.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Consumers’ willingness to accept gene-edited fruit—An application to quality traits for fresh table grapes

  Q Open · 2023-01-01 · 9 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract Given the increasing number of applications in agriculture of gene editing, specifically CRISPR, it is important to understand consumers’ perceptions of this breeding technology. We estimate consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for selected quality attributes of table grapes developed using either conventional breeding or CRISPR. Results show that the willingness-to-pay values for the selected table grape attributes were ranked in the same order for both breeding technologies. We found a slight discount in the overall WTP for table grapes produced using CRISPR compared with conventional breeding, but this discount was neither economically nor statistically significant. Our findings highlight consumers’ preferences for eating-experience attributes—e.g. sweetness and crispness. Results in this study advance the understanding of consumers’ perceptions, contributing to strategies for promoting broader acceptance of CRISPR in the marketplace.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Woke Farm and Food Policies in the Post-truth Era: Calamitous Consequences for People and the Planet

  Natural resource management and policy · 2022-01-01 · 4 citations

  book-chapter1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Consumer acceptance of new plant-breeding technologies: An application to the use of gene editing in fresh table grapes

  PLoS ONE · 2022-12-13 · 26 citations

  articleOpen access

  This study estimates consumers' willingness to pay for specific product (quality) and process (agronomic) attributes of table grapes, including taste, texture, external appearance, and the expected number of chemical applications, and for the breeding technology used to develop the plant. Considering varietal traits, on average our survey respondents were willing to pay the highest price premiums for specific offers of improvements in table grape taste and texture, followed by external appearance and expected number of chemical applications. Considering breeding methods, on average our respondents were willing to pay a small premium for table grapes developed using conventional breeding rather than gene editing (e.g., CRISPR). Results from a latent class model identify four different groups of consumers with distinct preferences for grape quality attributes and breeding technologies. The group of consumers most likely to reject gene editing considers both genetic engineering and gene editing to be breeding technologies that produce foods that are morally unacceptable and not safe to eat.

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Philip G. Pardey

  182 shared

• Abigail M. Okrent

  Economic Research Service

  53 shared

• Daniel A. Sumner

  46 shared

• Jennifer S. James

  44 shared

• James A. Chalfant

  University of California, Los Angeles

  39 shared

• Matthew A. Andersen

  Wyoming Department of Education

  35 shared

• Kate B. Fuller

  Economic Research Service

  31 shared

• Stephen A. Vosti

  University of California, Davis

  26 shared

Education

• Ph.D.

  North Carolina State University

  1984

• Other, Agricultural Economics

  La Trobe University, Australia

  1978

• Other

  University of Melbourne, Australia

  1974