About

Kyle Cavanaugh is a professor at the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability and the UCLA Department of Geography. His research focuses on the drivers and consequences of changes in coastal foundation species such as giant kelp forests and mangroves. He is particularly interested in understanding what controls large-scale changes in the distribution and abundance of these species. Much of his research utilizes remote sensing techniques, including satellite, aerial, and UAV imagery, to document ecological change over large spatial and temporal scales. Cavanaugh's background includes a Ph.D. in Marine Science from the University of California, Santa Barbara, obtained in 2011, and a B.S. in Geosciences from Trinity University in 2003. He previously worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, where he examined how coastal ecosystems respond to climate variability and human impacts. His work involves observing coastal ecosystems from various perspectives, including underwater, in mangrove swamps, and via satellite imagery.

Research topics

• Remote sensing
• Medicine
• Geology
• Ecology
• Virology
• Gerontology
• Physical geography
• Geography
• Environmental science
• Oceanography
• Pathology
• Family medicine

Selected publications

• 21st‐Century Mangrove Expansion Along the Southeastern United States

  Global Change Biology · 2026-01-01 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  Warming winter temperatures are driving range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive mangroves into temperate ecosystems. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, the mangrove range limit is particularly sensitive to climate variability and historical data demonstrate that the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone on this coast has shifted recurrently during recent centuries. However, a comprehensive understanding of how this mangrove-salt marsh ecotone may shift in the future remains lacking. Here, we combine ensemble forecasting of mangrove distribution for the next century with high-resolution oceanographic dispersal simulations, phenological observations, and historical hurricane data to project future mangrove-salt marsh dynamics at the rapidly changing range limit in northeastern Florida (USA). We show that warming winter temperatures will drive continued poleward expansion of mangroves along North America's Atlantic coast, potentially reaching South Carolina by 2100. With ongoing climate change, suitable mangrove habitat is projected to expand beyond the current range limit, and dispersal simulations suggest successful colonization of these sites from established mangrove populations. Additionally, patterns in hurricane directionality and intensity and field reports of propagule presence reveal that these high-energy events may significantly contribute to future mangrove range expansion by facilitating long-distance, storm-driven propagule dispersal. The encroachment of mangroves in salt marsh-dominated latitudes is expected to substantially modify wetland ecosystem function and structure, emphasizing how the identification of newly colonizable habitat can inform conservation strategies and site-specific decisions on mangrove management.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• High-resolution Planet Dove data identify local drivers of kelp canopy persistence

  Communications Earth & Environment · 2026-01-06

  articleOpen access

  Abstract In many regions, kelp forests have experienced losses due to ocean warming and other stressors, with negative impacts on ecosystems and fisheries. Detailed maps of kelp canopy extent are needed to understand the drivers of these losses, factors promoting resilience, and vulnerability to climate change. While moderate-resolution satellite data have been used to map kelp canopies over large scales, they often miss small, sparse, or nearshore canopies. We developed a convolutional neural network to map kelp canopy using Planet Dove imagery and created annual 3 m resolution maps from 2017 to 2024 across California. We show that kelp persistence during this post-disturbance period, following a marine heatwave, was positively associated with persistence before the heatwave, cooler sea surface temperatures, shallow habitats, and reduced fragmentation. There was high latitudinal variability in the effect of these drivers on persistence, highlighting the importance of data that capture ecological complexity from local to regional scales.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Uncertainties in Modelling Hawaii's Future Precipitation and What It Means for Endangered Forest Birds: A Review

  Journal of Biogeography · 2025-03-17 · 1 citations

  reviewOpen access

  ABSTRACT Aim We aim to review present uncertainties in projecting fine‐scale future precipitation in an area of high model disagreement, which is also data poor, topographically complex, and experiences climate‐driven threats to endemic biodiversity. Location Hawaiian Islands. Time Period We primarily focused on downscaling studies from the past decade and studies comparing the most recent iterations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Major Taxa Studied Hawaiian honeycreepers. Methods We explored sources of uncertainties in two major categories: (1) downscaling general circulation models (GCMs) to islands and (2) systematic biases in the representation of the tropical Pacific climate. We framed this discussion in the context of management planning for endangered Hawaiian forest birds. We also explored a brief case study exploring the impact of differing precipitation projections on Hawaiian forest bird ranges. This involves the use of maximum entropy software to model suitable habitat for Kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ) using baseline climate data and projecting that model to two different dynamically downscaled precipitation projections for Hawaii. Results The selection of downscaling methodology can affect as much as the sign of change for precipitation in areas of complex topography, especially forest bird habitat at higher elevations. We identified dynamical downscaling as the most used method for island climate predictions globally. Of statistical downscaling methods, machine learning proved to be the most common in recent island studies. The major sources of persistent uncertainty of GCM simulations in the tropical Pacific are the double Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone bias, the cold tongue bias, and westward‐extended El Niño‐Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature anomalies. These biases complicate the prediction of winter precipitation and future drought prevalence in Hawaii. The differences in precipitation projections from our case study show a large impact on range estimations of suitable habitat for Kiwikiu, especially on the leeward side of Maui. Main Conclusions Despite its limitations, dynamical downscaling may be better suited than statistical downscaling for simulating precipitation in Hawaii. Of statistical downscaling methods, perfect prognosis and machine learning show the most promise in accurate spatial representation of precipitation. Selected GCMs have recently achieved improved representations of the mean state tropical Pacific climate and more realistic El Niño –Southern Oscillation nonlinear feedbacks. To benefit from these improvements, future research could be dedicated to finding which models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project have the lowest precipitation bias over the northern central tropical Pacific. Future drought predictions in Hawaii will impact the planning of conservation actions such as predator control, conservation introductions, and novel disease management techniques.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• From the top: surface-derived carbon fuels greenhouse gas production at depth in a peatland

  Biogeosciences · 2025-06-13 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract. Tropical peatlands play an important role in global carbon (C) cycling, but little is known about factors driving carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions from these ecosystems, especially production in deeper soils. This study aimed to identify source material and processes regulating C emissions originating deep in three sites in a peatland on the Caribbean coast of Panama. We hypothesized that (1) surface-derived organic matter transported down the soil profile is the primary C source for respiration products at depth and that (2) high lignin content results in hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis as the dominant CH4 production pathway throughout the profile. We used radiocarbon isotopic values to determine whether CO2 and CH4 at depth are produced from modern substrates or ancient deep peat, and we used stable C isotopes to identify the dominant CH4 production pathway. Peat organic chemistry was characterized using 13C solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (13C-NMR). We found that deep peat respiration products had radiocarbon signatures that were more similar to surface dissolved organic C (DOC) than deep solid peat. These results indicate that surface-derived organic matter was the dominant source for gas production at depth in this peatland, likely because of vertical transport of DOC from the surface to depth. Lignin, which was the most abundant compound (55 %–70 % of C), increased with depth across these sites, whereas other C compounds like carbohydrates did not vary with depth. These results suggest that there is no preferential decomposition of carbohydrates but instead preferential retention of lignin. Stable isotope signatures of respiration products indicated that hydrogenotrophic rather than acetoclastic methanogenesis was the dominant production pathway of CH4 throughout the peat profile. These results show that deep C in tropical peatlands does not contribute greatly to surface fluxes of carbon dioxide, with compounds like lignin preferentially retained. This protection of deep C helps explain how peatland C is retained over thousands of years and points to the vulnerability of this C should anaerobic conditions in these wet ecosystems change.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Marine heatwaves drive range contraction and alternative states of kelp forests at their warm limit

  bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2025-10-17

  preprintOpen access

  Abstract Marine heatwaves are transforming ecosystems, yet their role in driving alternative states—and the conditions that enable these transitions—remains poorly understood. Using 30 years of satellite and underwater data, we assessed the impact of the 2014–2016 Pacific marine heatwaves on giant kelp forests ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) at their warm range limit in Mexico. By 2016, 88% of forests were lost, with limited recovery by 2023, including an 80 km range contraction at the southern edge. Surveys revealed three alternative states: replacement by heat-tolerant palm kelp ( Eisenia arborea ) in warmer regions; urchin barrens due to predator overfishing; and, unexpectedly, persistent giant kelp near the southern limit where high temperatures coincide with low human pressure. Pre-existing conditions, such as high urchin and palm kelp densities, shaped these outcomes. These findings show that responses to marine heatwaves are shaped by local ecological and human contexts, requiring tailored climate-adaptation strategies to promote resilience.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Changuinola peat soil characteristics and gas emission raw data October 2019

  OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) · 2025-01-01

  datasetOpen access

  This dataset comprises radiocarbon and geochemical measurements from peat and porewater samples collected across various depths at a site in Bocas del Toro, Panama. The study focuses on carbon cycling dynamics in tropical peatlands by examining carbon isotopic signatures (¹⁴C and ¹³C) and elemental compositions of bulk peat, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and methane (CH₄). Key parameters include radiocarbon ages and isotopic ratios (δ¹³C) of bulk peat, concentrations of carbon (%C) and nitrogen (%N), and radiocarbon content of porewater gases and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The data provide insights into the vertical and spatial distribution of carbon sources and possible preservation and decomposition processes within tropical peat profiles, offering critical information for understanding carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions in these ecosystems.This dataset is comprised of one main data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) carbon isotopic signatures (¹⁴C and ¹³C); (5) concentrations of carbon (%C) and nitrogen (%N); (6) radiocarbon content of porewater carbon dioxide (CO₂), and methane (CH₄) ; (7) porewater DOC; (8) bulk peat sampling protocol; (9) porewater sampling protocol; (10) porewater gas collection methods; and (11) gas extraction methods. All files are in .csv format and can be opened with any software that supports this file types.

  PublisherDOI

• Global floating kelp forests have limited protection despite intensifying marine heatwave threats

  Nature Communications · 2025-04-03 · 11 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Kelp forests are one of the earth's most productive ecosystems and are at great risk from climate change, yet little is known regarding their current conservation status and global future threats. Here, by combining a global remote sensing dataset of floating kelp forests with climate data and projections, we find that exposure to projected marine heatwaves will increase ~6 to ~16 times in the long term (2081-2100) compared to contemporary (2001-2020) exposure. While exposure will intensify across all regions, some southern hemisphere areas which have lower exposure to contemporary and projected marine heatwaves may provide climate refugia for floating kelp forests. Under these escalating threats, less than 3% of global floating kelp forests are currently within highly restrictive marine protected areas (MPAs), the most effective MPAs for protecting biodiversity. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to increase the global protection of floating kelp forests and set bolder climate adaptation goals.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Developing a Status and Trends Assessment for Floating Kelp Canopies across Large Geographic Areas

  Environmental Science & Technology · 2025-11-13 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access

  Effective kelp forest stewardship and management requires understanding of status and trends, but most kelp monitoring data streams on the U.S. West Coast are focused on subregional scales with outputs targeted toward a scientific audience. Here, we developed an index of kelp status and trend that integrates across thousands of kilometers and is presented as a simple, informative gauge that can be easily communicated to multiple audiences, including high-level policymakers. The indicator has three main features: (1) it is based on floating kelps as they create canopies, and managers indicated their interest in whether the quantity of kelp surface canopy had changed relative to historical levels. (2) Kelp canopy is assessed within segments along the coastline, rather than as a single coast-wide, cumulative amount. This approach retains local-level information allowing the indicator to be calculated at multiple scales, which accommodates the multigovernance landscape of the U.S. West Coast. (3) Status of kelp is expressed as a comparison to a reference period, established using all data prior to a marine heat wave in 2014 that led to substantial kelp losses. When applied to data from recent years, we found that the kelp canopies continue to be below their historical baseline. Since 2014, there has been no coast-wide recovery to reference levels. Still, despite 2023 being among the worst years on record, there was substantial improvement in kelp canopies in 2024 and recent downward trends have stalled. This Kelp Indicator provides a tool to inform resource management, improve policy, and prioritize scientific research, recovery efforts, and monitoring.

  PublisherDOI

• Influence of anthropogenic nutrient sources on kelp canopies during a marine heat wave

  Marine Pollution Bulletin · 2025-04-26 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access

  Giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a keystone species in many temperate coastal oceans, is increasingly threatened by global change and local stressors including increased temperature, reduced nutrients, and decreased water clarity. In the Southern California Bight (SCB), a coastal region with enriched nitrogen input from of 23 million, understanding the factors that contribute to the stability of kelp habitat demands comprehensive research to protect this species and its critical ecosystem roles. During the 2014-2016 marine heat wave (MHW), giant kelp exhibited variability in its response across the SCB despite region-wide temperature increases, leading to questions about what might be conferring resilience to thermal stress. To better understand this variation, we spatially analyze kelp forest canopy area before and during the 2014-2016 MHW. We use spatial statistics to determine the correlation between these observations and estimates of anthropogenic dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) derived from a regional physical-biogeochemical model. We find there are regions within the SCB where anthropogenic sources could elevate dissolved inorganic nitrogen to concentrations adequate for kelp growth during periods in which natural supplies would fall below growth thresholds. We also find kelp forests with greater days of anthropogenic influence during the MHW sustained a greater percentage of pre-MHW normalized canopy area. These results suggest possible contribution of anthropogenic nitrogen to kelp nutrient requirements during climate-driven nutrient stress. More work remains to tease apart anthropogenic nutrients from other eutrophication impacts, such as changes to water clarity from increased productivity, as well as other potential environmental and biological factors during MHW and non-MHW periods.

  PublisherDOI

• Drivers of kelp forest refugia during successive disturbance events

  Journal of Ecology · 2025-06-13 · 4 citations

  articleOpen accessCorresponding

  Abstract Increased ocean temperatures have led to large‐scale declines in many ecologically important species, including kelp forests. Spatial heterogeneity across seascapes could protect kelp individuals and small populations from thermal stress and nutrient limitation. Habitat features within upwelling regions may facilitate the transport of deep, cold water into shallow systems, but little is known about the spatiotemporal occurrence or stability of these climate refugia. Kelp in climate refugia may, however, also experience other stressors, such as overgrazing by kelp herbivores, reducing their effectiveness. Here, we use high‐resolution kelp canopy maps generated from CubeSat constellation data to characterize kelp persistence in northern California following a dramatic decline in kelp abundance due to increased temperature and nutrient limitation during a severe marine heatwave and continued intense grazing pressure by purple sea urchins. Kelp persistence was associated with local areas of relatively cool water temperature and seascape features such as shallow depths and low‐complexity bathymetry, which may have provided refuge from overgrazing. However, a very small percentage of kelp forests in the region exhibited high persistence, with many forests present in only one or two of the 9 years studied. Most kelp patches were not spatially stable over time. Initially, kelp presence aligned with climate refugia, but as overgrazing emerged as the dominant driver of kelp distributions post‐2019, kelp shifted to areas that offered protection from grazing pressure. Synthesis . Cooler areas with localized upwelling acted as climate refugia during the increased ocean temperatures from the 2014–2016 marine heatwave, supporting nutrient‐rich environments and mitigating heat stress for kelp forests. However, these temperature refugia often did not spatially overlap with areas providing protection from grazing pressure, leaving kelp forests vulnerable to future warming even within temperature refugia if grazing pressure remains high.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• John D. Parker

  Smithsonian Institution

  37 shared

• Ilka C. Feller

  Smithsonian Environmental Research Center

  36 shared

• Tom W. Bell

  Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

  35 shared

• James R. Kellner

  Brown University

  26 shared

• David A. Siegel

  24 shared

• Daniel C. Reed

  University of California, Santa Barbara

  20 shared

• Wilfrid Rodriguez

  19 shared

• Carol Epling

  Duke University

  18 shared

Labs

• Marine Center at UCLA Institute of the Environment and SustainabilityPI

Awards & honors

• Pritzker Emerging Environmental Genius Award
• Impact Fellow: Ariadne Reynolds