About

Larry Band is the Ernest H. Ern Professor of Environmental Science at the University of Virginia. He is an eco-hydrologist whose research spans the continuum of natural through urban watersheds. His work aims to develop and incorporate principles learned in unmanaged ecosystems as part of urban ecosystem restoration. This research focus highlights the integration of ecological and hydrological processes to better understand and improve urban environmental systems.

Research topics

• Ecology
• Environmental science
• Geology
• Sociology
• Meteorology
• Geography
• Climatology
• Biology
• Statistics
• Atmospheric sciences
• Economics
• Environmental economics
• Business
• Soil science
• Natural resource economics
• Environmental resource management
• Engineering
• Mathematics

Selected publications

• Sweet spots for nitrogen reduction in a coastal watershed

  Nature Sustainability · 2026-05-12

  article
  PublisherDOI

• No Proportional Increase of Terrestrial Gross Carbon Sequestration From the Greening Earth

  UNC Libraries · 2026-04-14

  articleOpen access

  Terrestrial vegetation, as the key component of the biosphere, has a greening trend since the beginning of this century. However, how this substantial greening translated to global gross carbon sequestration or gross primary production (GPP) is not clear. Here we investigated terrestrial GPP dynamics and the respective contributions of climate change and vegetation cover change (VCC) from 2000 to 2015. We adopted a remote sensing based data‐driven model, which was calibrated based on the global eddy flux data set (FLUXNET2015) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer vegetation index data (Collection 6). A series of simulation experiments were conducted to disaggregate the effects of climate and VCC. We found a much weaker increase in global GPP (0.08%/year; P = 0.07) when compared with the global greening rate (0.23%/year; P < 0.001). The positive effect of VCC on GPP was reduced by 53% due to climate stress. Enhanced global GPP were largely contributed by nonforests, especially croplands. However, tropical forests, once a major driver of the global GPP increase, negatively contributed to global GPP trend due to warming‐induced moisture stress and deforestation. Given the limited potential of cropland carbon storage due to harvest and consumption, the contrasting GPP changes (i.e., cropland GPP increase vs. forest GPP reduction) may have shifted the distribution of the land carbon sink. Our study highlights the potential vulnerability of terrestrial gross carbon sequestration under climate and land use changes and has important implications in the global carbon cycle and climate warming mitigation. Key Points Global terrestrial GPP did not increase in proportion to the greening on Earth Enhanced global terrestrial GPP largely contributed by nonforests, especially cropland Contrasting GPP changes in forest and cropland may have shifted the distribution of land carbon sink

  PublisherDOI

• Do Lagged Ecosystem Feedbacks to Hydroclimate Extremes Promote Resilience of Forest Watersheds?

  Water Resources Research · 2025-11-09

  preprintOpen access

  Abstract Hydroclimate extremes (e.g., droughts and wet periods) can significantly alter forest ecohydrological processes. Severe growing‐season droughts can reduce leaf area index (LAI), tree conductivity, and growing‐season length through early senescence. These strategies reduce transpiration (green water use), conserve subsurface water storage while promoting greater recharge from precipitation. Conversely, high rainfall can boost seasonal soil moisture, stimulating growth and expansion of leaf area, which increases forest water use; however, this may cause extensive cloud cover that limits radiation and photosynthetic rates. These adaptive ecosystem responses often exhibit significant time lags, manifesting months or years after the extreme events. Understanding these lagged feedbacks is essential for assessing forest resilience and projecting future freshwater regimes amid increasing hydroclimate extremes. In this study, we applied the Regional Hydro‐Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to the Beetree Creek watershed near Asheville, North Carolina. We found a non‐linear correlation between late‐growing‐season LAI (August and September) and cumulative early‐growing‐season precipitation anomalies (May–July). Specifically, extreme dry or wet early growing seasons reduce late‐growing‐season LAI and cumulative growing‐season gross primary productivity. These correlations are also modulated by topography: riparian zones show a reduced sensitivity to hydroclimate variations compared to upslope areas due to lateral subsurface flow subsidies from upslope. These lagged feedbacks may serve as critical resilience mechanisms for Appalachian forest ecosystems, reducing vegetation water consumption during dry periods to conserve water and promoting recharge when precipitation increases.

  PublisherDOI

• Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

  UNC Libraries · 2025-09-17

  articleOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Accounting for Adaptive Water Supply Management When Quantifying Climate and Land Cover Change Vulnerability

  UNC Libraries · 2025-07-09

  articleOpen access

  Climate and land cover change strongly shape water resources management, but understanding their joint impacts is extremely challenging. Consequently, there is limited research of their integrated effects on water supply systems, and even fewer studies that rigorously account for infrastructure investment and management interventions. We utilize ecohydrologic modeling to generate watershed outflows under scenarios of climate and land cover change, which in turn drive modeled water utility‐level decision making for the Research Triangle region of North Carolina. In the Triangle region, land cover and climate change are both likely to increase water supply availability (reservoir inflows) individually and in tandem. However, improvements from water supply increases are not uniform across management system performance indicators of reliability, conservation implementation frequency (i.e., water use restrictions), and infrastructure investment. Utility decisions influence the impact of hydrologic change through both short‐term (e.g., use restrictions and water transfers) and longer‐term infrastructure investment actions, in some cases offsetting the beneficial effects of additional water supply. Timing and sequencing of infrastructure development are strongly sensitive to climate and land use change as captured by their impacts on utility performance outcomes. This work underscores the need to consider adaptive management system responses and decision‐relevant performance measures when determining the impacts of hydrologic change on water availability. Key Points Utility‐scale decision making influences the impact of climate and land use change on both short‐ and long‐term outcomes Timing and sequencing of infrastructure development is highly sensitive to hydrologic change as captured by utility performance indicators Impacts of hydrologic change are not uniform across performance indicators, utilities, or time, owing to management actions

  PublisherDOI

• Projected hydrological changes in the North Carolina piedmont using bias-corrected North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) data

  UNC Libraries · 2025-09-12

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding
  PublisherDOI

• Over, Under, and Through: Hydrologic Connectivity and the Future of Coastal Landscape Salinization

  Water Resources Research · 2025-06-27 · 5 citations

  articleOpen access

  Abstract Seawater intrusion (SWI) affects coastal landscapes worldwide. Here we describe the hydrologic pathways through which SWI occurs ‐ over land via storm surge or tidal flooding, under land via groundwater transport, and through watersheds via natural and artificial surface water channels—and how human modifications to those pathways alter patterns of SWI. We present an approach to advance understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of salinization that integrates these hydrologic pathways, their interactions, and how humans modify them. We use examples across the East Coast of the United States that exemplify mechanisms of salinization that have been reported around the planet to illustrate how hydrologic connectivity and human modifications alter patterns of SWI. Finally, we suggest a path for advancing SWI science that includes (a) deploying standardized and well‐distributed sensor networks at local to global scales that intentionally track SWI fronts, (b) employing remote sensing and geospatial imaging techniques targeted at integrating above and belowground patterns of SWI, and (c) continuing to develop data analysis and model‐data fusion techniques to measure the extent, understand the effects, and predict the future of coastal salinization.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Comparing Robust Optimization Approaches for Addressing Hydrologic Model Uncertainty in Infrastructure Planning: A Green Infrastructure Example

  Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management · 2025-07-09 · 2 citations

  articleSenior author

  Water resources planning is dependent on hydrologic models to estimate flows and storage in candidate engineering designs. However, such models are calibrated with limited flow data relative to the many model parameters. This may result in different equifinal parameterizations that imply different optimal designs. To assess if and how this uncertainty should be considered, we compare three methods for multiobjective optimization of green infrastructure (GI): one that designs to the most likely parameterization and two robust alternatives that use several likely parameterizations with (1) likelihood-weighted objective functions, and (2) min-max objective functions. To evaluate these methods, we set synthetic true values for model parameters, use them to simulate observed streamflow, and then use Bayesian calibration to estimate parametric uncertainty. We compare results from optimization to the synthetic parameterization against the three alternatives. The GI optimizations aim to minimize flooding, low-flow intensification, and cost. We find that the two robust methods provide objective values and decisions that are closer to those optimized to the synthetic truth, demonstrating value in considering hydrologic model uncertainty in water resource system designs.

  PublisherDOI

• Climate Change May Increase the Drought Stress of Mesophytic Trees Downslope With Ongoing Forest Mesophication Under a History of Fire Suppression

  UNC Libraries · 2025-06-28

  articleOpen access

  In mountainous headwater catchments, downslope flow of subsurface water could buffer downslope forest communities from soil moisture stress during drought. Here we investigated changes in landscape-scale vegetation patterns at five forested headwater catchments in the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory in the southern Appalachians. We used a ca. 30-year Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) image record of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), spanning a period of recorded warming since the mid-1970. We then, related spatial and temporal canopy patterns to seasonal water balance, streamflow recession behavior, and low flow dynamics from the long-term hydrologic records. All hydrologic metrics indicated increasing evapotranspiration, decreasing streamflow given precipitation, and potentially decreasing downslope subsidy at the watershed scale over time, especially during low-flow periods. Contrary to expectations, leaf area index (LAI) and basal area increased more upslope compared to downslope over time, coincident with warming. Trends in the ratio of NDVI in upslope and downslope topographic positions were also supported by long-term tree basal area increment, litterfall, and sap flux data in one of the reference watersheds. Mesophytic trees downslope appeared to respond more to frequent droughts and experience lower growth than xerophytic trees upslope, closely mediated by the isohydric/anisohydric continuum along hydrologic flow paths. Considering ongoing forest “mesophication” under a history of fire suppression across the eastern United States deciduous forests, this study suggests that mesophytic trees downslope may be more vulnerable than xerophytic trees upslope under ongoing climate change due to an apparent dependence on upslope water subsidy.

  PublisherDOI

• Watershed impacts of climate and land use changes depend on magnitude and land use context

  UNC Libraries · 2025-09-10

  articleOpen accessSenior author

  Human population growth and urban development are affecting climate, land use, and the ecosystem services provided to society, including the supply of freshwater. We investigated the effects of land use and climate change on water resources in the Yadkin–Pee Dee River Basin of North Carolina, United States. Current and projected land uses were modeled at high resolution for three watersheds representing a forested to urban land use gradient by melding the National Land Cover Dataset with data from the U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis. Forecasts for 2051–2060 of regional land use and climate for scenarios of low (B2) and moderately high (A1B) rates of change, coupled with multiple global circulation models (MIROC, CSIRO, and Hadley), were used to inform a distributed ecohydrological model. Our results identified increases in water yields across the study watersheds, primarily due to forecasts of increased precipitation. Climate change was a more dominant factor for future water yield relative to land use change across all land uses (forested, urban, and mixed). When land use change was high (27% of forested land use was converted to urban development), it amplified the impacts of climate change on both the magnitude and timing of water yield. Our fine‐scale (30‐m) distributed combined modeling approach of land use and climate change identified changes in watershed hydrology at scales relevant for management, emphasizing the need for modeling efforts that integrate the effects of biophysical (climate) and social economic (land use) changes on the projection of future water resource scenarios.

  PublisherDOI

Recent grants

• ULTRA-Ex: Collaborative Research: Reconciling Human and Natural Systems for the Equitable Provision of Ecosystem Services in the Triangle of North Carolina

  NSF · $93k · 2009–2013

• Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Effects of restoration and redevelopment on nitrogen dynamics in an urban coastal watershed

  NSF · $126k · 2014–2017

• Collaborative Research: CyberSEES: Type 2: A New Framework for Crowd-Sourced Green Infrastructure Design

  NSF · $572k · 2013–2017

Frequent coauthors

• Peter M. Groffman

  The Graduate Center, CUNY

  125 shared

• J. M. Duncan

  Pennsylvania State University

  54 shared

• Taehee Hwang

  Indiana University Bloomington

  43 shared

• Kenneth T. Belt

  34 shared

• James M. Vose

  North Carolina State University

  32 shared

• C. Tague

  University of California, Santa Barbara

  31 shared

• Garrick Louis

  Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

  29 shared

• Sujay S. Kaushal

  Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center

  29 shared

Labs

• Link LabPI

Education

• Phd, Geography

  University of California Los Angeles

  1983

Awards & honors

• 2017 Fellow, Geological Society of America
• 2014 Birdsall-Dreiss Lecturer, Geological Society of America