About

Maksym Chepeliev is a Research Economist at the Center for Global Trade Analysis within the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University. His research focuses on economic impacts related to agriculture, trade, and land markets, with particular attention to farmland market dynamics and the broader implications of international trade policies. Chepeliev contributes to the understanding of how global trade and economic policies influence agricultural markets and rural communities, providing insights that inform policy decisions and economic strategies in the agricultural sector.

Research topics

• Computer Science
• Economics
• Political Science
• Econometrics
• Oceanography
• Mathematics
• Geology
• Geography
• Environmental science
• Engineering
• Environmental planning

Selected publications

• Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

  Figshare · 2026-03-17

  datasetOpen access

  The dataset is the Supplementary Data File for "Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate mitigation efforts on global hunger" by Xia et al. It contains data on global and regional hunger risk, food availability, and food prices under the no-climate-change baseline scenario from the present to 2050. Additionally, it includes changes in global and regional hunger risk, food availability, and food prices due to various factors, including warming, climate change mitigation, and the ozone reduction of mitigation.

  PublisherDOI

• Commonalities and differences in national pathways toward net-zero emissions

  Research Square · 2026-04-14

  preprintOpen access
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

  Figshare · 2026-03-17

  datasetOpen access

  The dataset is the Supplementary Data File for "Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate mitigation efforts on global hunger" by Xia et al. It contains data on global and regional hunger risk, food availability, and food prices under the no-climate-change baseline scenario from the present to 2050. Additionally, it includes changes in global and regional hunger risk, food availability, and food prices due to various factors, including warming, climate change mitigation, and the ozone reduction of mitigation.

  PublisherDOI

• Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

  Nature Food · 2026-03-16 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  Studies warning of the potential negative effects of climate mitigation on food security through the competing use of land for bioenergy and afforestation have overlooked the impact of reduced ozone and its potential enhancement of crop yields. Here we use six global agro-economic models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy and ozone reduction on agriculture. We find that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global reduction. Our findings indicate that the negative effects of climate mitigation on global hunger could be partially offset by the ozone reduction impact.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Capturing system complexity in maritime decarbonization: a multilayer modeling perspective

  Environmental Research Letters · 2026-04-20

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Abstract

  PublisherDOI

• Global food trade can mitigate substantial health burdens attributed to ambient PM2.5 pollution

  Nature Food · 2026-02-27

  article
  PublisherDOI

• The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems

  The Lancet · 2025-10-01 · 235 citations

  reviewOpen access
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Disentangling the Channels of Impact of the Ukraine War on Global Food Markets: An Integrated Scenario Approach

  Food Security · 2025-06-11 · 2 citations

  articleOpen access1st authorCorresponding

  Abstract The war in Ukraine has major implications for the world's agricultural and food markets, as the Black Sea region is a large supplier of crops and fertilizers. Impacts of the war are further exacerbated by the sanctions against Russia, spillover effects from disruptions of other commodity markets, adverse weather events and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. In this paper, using a comprehensive modeling framework, we decompose the impacts across various channels and show that the cumulative effect of the considered indirect spillovers is even more substantial than the direct agricultural supply disruptions in Ukraine. Our results also suggest that the benefits of proactive trade policies, such as the implementation of trade facilitation measures and the reduction of import tariffs on agricultural and food commodities, are much more substantial than the adverse impacts of the war and other disruptions. Such trade policies would boost agricultural trade, increase overall food availability and lead to the higher integration of agricultural and food commodities into the global value chains, making food systems more resilient to potential future shocks.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

  The Lancet Planetary Health · 2025-10-01 · 4 citations

  articleOpen access

  <h2>Summary</h2><h3>Background</h3> Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. <h3>Methods</h3> In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–<i>Lancet</i> healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. <h3>Findings</h3> Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO₂ emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). <h3>Interpretation</h3> This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions. <h3>Funding</h3> Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund; the Asahi Glass Foundation; CGIAR Initiative on Foresight; the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations; US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service; and the ClimateWorks Foundation, European Union.

  PublisherDOI

• Bending the Curve of Food Loss and Waste (FLW) Generation Requires Coupling Global Dietary Shifts with Targeted FLW Reduction Policies

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

  32 shared

• Thomas W. Hertel

  11 shared

• Roman Podolets

  10 shared

• Oleksandr Diachuk

  10 shared

• Angel Aguiar

  Purdue University System

  9 shared

• Alla Golub

  7 shared

• Wajiha Saeed

  Purdue University System

  6 shared

• Wallace E. Tyner

  Purdue University West Lafayette

  6 shared

Awards & honors

• James C. Snyder Memorial Lecture