Pincelli Hull
· Associate Professor of Earth & Planetary SciencesVerifiedYale University · Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Active 2000–2026
About
Pincelli M. Hull is a professor at Yale University whose research focuses on the application of machine learning techniques in macroecology. Her work particularly emphasizes the use of deep neural networks applied to large volumes of biogeographical data, with a main research interest in species distribution modeling. Her current projects involve developing AI models that link micro and macroclimates to synthesize explanatory variables related to individuals' thermal stress and thermal refugia, contributing to understanding climate impacts on species and ecosystems.
Research topics
- Ecology
- Biology
- Paleontology
- Geology
- Oceanography
- Climatology
- Evolutionary biology
- Physics
- Astrophysics
- Environmental science
- Environmental chemistry
- Atmospheric sciences
- Chemistry
- Astronomy
- Demography
- Zoology
- Geography
- Physical geography
- Earth science
Selected publications
Geoscientific model development · 2026-02-03 · 1 citations
articleOpen accessAbstract. Export of carbon from the euphotic zone to intermediate and deep water plays a critical role in the ocean's feedback response to a warming climate. However, as water temperature increases so does the rate of bacterial respiration at the base of the biological pump, resulting in more efficient recycling of carbon in the upper ocean, less efficient export of carbon to depth, and a diminished net negative feedback on climate. Therefore, to better predict climate response associated with changes in ocean carbon storage in warming scenarios, it is imperative to incorporate temperature-sensitive mechanisms, such as bacterial respiration (remineralization), into Earth system models. Here, we employ a new temperature-dependent parameterization for remineralization (Tdep) in the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) applied to gravitationally sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) in a preindustrial control simulation. We find that the inclusion of Tdep in both low and high-resolution model configurations more accurately captures regional heterogeneity in POC transfer efficiency while preserving the overall trends in nutrient distribution and attenuation of sinking particulate matter when compared with modern empirical data. Inclusion of this parametrization will allow for improved predictions of temperature-sensitive mechanisms impacting carbon storage in the warming ocean.
2026-03-14
articleOpen accessSenior authorWhile the Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO) is viewed as an analogue for near-future conditions resulting from anthropogenic climate change, improving our understanding of this event requires the development of proxy records within a well-calibrated temporal framework. Large igneous province emplacement in the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) has been suggested to cause elevated global temperatures and CO2 during the MCO, but assessing the connection between volcanism and warming requires robust timelines for proxy records of these events. While we have developed a new age model for CRBG volcanism based on high-precision U-Pb geochronology (Kasbohm et al., 2023) and a U-Pb age model for the MCO that reinforces the validity of astronomically tuned age models for this event (Kasbohm et al., 2024), only a small number of MCO proxy records have been age-calibrated through astronomical tuning. Existing boron isotope CO2 proxy records from the MCO were age-calibrated through biostratigraphy alone, hindering correlation to known intervals of CRBG volcanism. These records showed high-amplitude CO2 variability, calling into question the stability of the Miocene climate system.Here, we present a new foraminiferal boron isotope record from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1490 (Western Pacific Warm Pool), which has an astronomically tuned age model concordant with our radiometric ages for the MCO (Holbourn et al., 2024). This new record targets the onset of the MCO through the end of the main-phase CRBG volcanism (17.1-16 Ma) at ~15 kyr resolution, with lower resolution across the entire MCO (17.8-13 Ma). We find well-resolved and relatively stable pH values across the MCO, with sampling resolution that reveals orbital pacing of these records. Our reconstructed CO2 estimates show less variability than prior records, though we note somewhat variable correlation with changes in MCO benthic δ18O values, which may reflect dynamism in foraminifera’s habitat during the warmest conditions of the MCO. We observe little change in CO2 resulting from CRBG surface volcanism, and no strong correlation between CO2 changes and the tempo of CRBG eruptions. A transient uptick in CO2 prior to surface eruptions, as well as sustained somewhat higher values afterwards, may be explained by cryptic degassing of large amounts of CRBG magma trapped in the crust, but the magnitude of this CO2 change was small.
Figshare · 2026-04-10
articleOpen accessPetryshen_ESM_2026.docx
No global collapse of food webs across the Permian–Triassic Mass Extinction
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2026-02-25
articleOpen accessAbstract The Permian–Triassic mass extinction (PTME), the Earth’s most severe biotic crisis associated with extreme environmental perturbations, eliminated >80% of marine species 1 . However, whether it triggered a globally pervasive top-down collapse of marine food webs, and whether recovery proceeded through bottom-up reassembly, remain unresolved 2-4 . Here we reconstruct spatially explicit metacommunity food webs from seven regions spanning equatorial to high latitudes to test how extinction dynamics and ecosystem reorganization varied geographically. By integrating estimates of community structure and species interactions, we provide direct inference on trophic disruption across the PTME. Despite catastrophic species loss and flattening of the latitudinal diversity gradient 5 , trophic collapse was not globally uniform, and higher trophic levels were not globally truncated. Instead, extinction selectivity was spatially heterogenous and tracked environmental severity. Benthic, low-motility herbivores with limited respiratory capacity were disproportionately lost, consistent with intensified warming, deoxygenation and disruption of primary productivity under elevated pCO 2 . Mid-to high-latitude communities became top-heavy and structurally complex, whereas tropical systems remained bottom-heavy and less robust to secondary extinction. These results demonstrate that trophic disruption and recovery were geographically structured, mediated by environmental forcing, species traits and pre-extinction food-web architecture, with implications for predicting marine ecosystem responses to ongoing climate change.
Figshare · 2026-04-10
articleOpen accessPetryshen_ESM_2026.docx
Detecting stabilizing dynamics in biased biodiversity time series using Haar fluctuation analysis
Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · 2026-04-22
articleOpen accessCharacterizing how biodiversity has changed through Earth's history and uncovering the processes that have driven those changes remain a significant challenge. Haar fluctuation analysis, a recently developed time-series method, has been suggested as a powerful new tool to infer macroevolutionary drivers and assess system stability. Yet the ability of this method to identify unique drivers or the timing and dynamics of biodiversity, particularly in biased time series, has not been demonstrated. Here, we assess Haar fluctuation analysis and cross-Haar correlations using process-based ecological simulations that incorporate realistic sampling and depositional biases. We find that simpler (neutral) mechanisms can produce patterns observed in the Phanerozoic record, and that uneven sampling and sedimentary hiatuses can distort scaling relationships, cautioning against mechanistic interpretations. Nonetheless, Haar fluctuation analysis can reliably distinguish stabilizing from non-stabilizing dynamics, even under severe sampling bias, supporting the identification of a long-term equilibrium in Phanerozoic marine biodiversity. Our results suggest that Haar fluctuation analysis will be robust for detecting stability whenever the time series is of sufficient resolution relative to duration, and duration relative to the system's return time. More broadly, these findings underscore the value of time-scale-based approaches for studying biodiversity dynamics.
2025-09-16 · 1 citations
preprintOpen accessAbstract. Export of carbon from the euphotic zone to intermediate and deep water plays a critical role in the ocean’s feedback response to a warming climate. However, as water temperature increases so does the rate of bacterial respiration at the base of the biological pump, resulting in more efficient recycling of carbon in the upper ocean, less efficient export of carbon to depth, and a diminished net negative feedback on climate. Therefore, to better predict climate response associated with changes in ocean carbon storage in warming scenarios, it is imperative to incorporate temperature-sensitive mechanisms, such as bacterial respiration (remineralization), into Earth system models. Here, we employ a new temperature-dependent parameterization for remineralization (Tdep) in the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) applied to gravitationally sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) in a preindustrial control simulation. We find that the inclusion of Tdep in both low and high-resolution model configurations more accurately captures regional heterogeneity in POC transfer efficiency while preserving the overall trends in nutrient distribution and attenuation of sinking particulate matter when compared with modern empirical data. Inclusion of this parametrization will allow for improved predictions of temperature-sensitive mechanisms impacting carbon storage in the warming ocean.
Author response for "Stabilisation of Fluctuating Population Dynamics via the Evolution of Dormancy"
2025-03-12
peer-reviewSenior author‘Earth system engineers’ and the cumulative impact of organisms in deep time
Trends in Ecology & Evolution · 2025-09-24 · 1 citations
articleOpen accessUnderstanding the role of humans as 'ecosystem engineers' requires a deep-time perspective rooted in evolutionary history and the fossil record. However, no conceptual framework exists for studying the rise of ecosystem engineering in deep time, requiring us to consider effects that fall outside the scope of traditional definitions. Here, we present a new framework applicable to both modern and ancient engineering-type effects. We propose a new term - 'Earth system engineering' - to describe biological processes that alter the structure and function of planetary spheres, and which combines core tenets of ecosystem engineering, niche construction, and legacy effects. We illustrate this framework using the fossil record, and show how it can be applied across the tree of life, and throughout Earth history.
2025-01-24
preprintOpen accessAbstract. During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma), a rapid injection of greenhouse gases (with isotopically depleted carbon) into the atmosphere led to a ~5 °C global temperature rise, ocean acidification, and perturbation of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we carried out a series of DeepMIP climate sensitivity experiments t using the Community Earth System Model CESM1.2 to evaluate how changes in the radiative forcing could have contributed to Eocene hyperthermal events. An atmospheric change from 3xCO2 relative to pre-industrial levels (PAL) equivalent during the latest Paleocene to 6xCO2 PAL in response to a carbon input pulse of 1680 PgC resulted in equatorial warming to 36.9 °C consistent with proxy estimates. The lower equator-to-pole temperature gradient in this 6xCO2 PAL scenario as compared to the pre-industrial experiment with 1x CO2 PAL is due to the lack of an ice sheet, the increase in greenhouse gases, and a lower cloud optical depth. The climate simulations suggest an intensified hydrological cycle with higher precipitation in the tropics, particularly over the Indian Eocene continent, and in mid-latitude. In contrast, mega-droughts are prominent in the subtropics, particularly in Africa and South America. Topographic effects such as the closure of the Drake Passage and the more southern location of Australia as well as a lower-than-present meridional temperature gradient contribute to a much weaker surface ocean circulation near the Antarctic continent, as compared to the current pronounced Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In response to the increase in greenhouse gas forcing to 6xCO2 PAL, deep water formation in the Southern Ocean nearly collapsed and changed from a southern-dominated deep-sea ventilation to a weak deep water formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and further to a polar collapse of deep water formation and a shallow haline-mode ventilation in the subtropics at 12xCO2 PAL. Bipolar convective overturning in the Pacific Ocean is not supported and remains uncertain, but southern component water mass formation in the Pacific Ocean has been simulated with 1x CO2 PAL. Increased stratification and reduced solubility of dissolved oxygen caused by warming may have contributed to lower abyssal dissolved oxygen concentrations and thus stresses on the marine ecosystem. However, decreased upwelling and productivity may have decreased the apparent oxygen utilization and thus could have increased the oxygen concentration in the twilight zone.
Recent grants
NSF · $300k · 2016–2019
NSF · $141k · 2013–2016
NSF · $111k · 2015–2020
Frequent coauthors
- 91 shared
Richard D. Norris
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
- 57 shared
Michael J. Henehan
University of Bristol
- 56 shared
Ellen Thomas
Planetary Science Institute
- 53 shared
Donald E. Penman
Utah State University
- 50 shared
Miranda Margulis‐Ohnuma
Yale University
- 49 shared
Kate Pippenger
- 47 shared
Jack O. Shaw
Santa Fe Institute
- 47 shared
Derek E. G. Briggs
Yale University
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