About

Veronica Cacdac Warnock is a professor of practice at the UVA Darden School of Business and a Batten Institute Fellow. She is an economist with a background in applied econometrics, economic forecasting, and housing and housing finance. Her research currently focuses on the financial sector and human development. Warnock serves as a consultant to international and research organizations, including the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank, ShoreBank International, and the Bank for International Settlements. She has held visiting positions at the Asian Institute of Management, HKMA's Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, and IIIS at Trinity College Dublin. Prior to her tenure at UVA, she was a senior economist and director at the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from Fordham University and an A.B. in economics from Ateneo de Manila University.

Research topics

• Economics
• Financial economics
• Political Science
• Physics
• Microeconomics
• Geography
• Business
• Macroeconomics
• Econometrics
• Monetary economics

Selected publications

• KFstar and Portfolio Inflows: A Focus on Latin America

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2022-09-01

  reportOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Kfstar and Portfolio Inflows: A Focus on Latin America

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2022

  Senior authorCorresponding
  • Political Science
  • Economics
  • Business
  PublisherDOI

• A natural level of capital flows

  Journal of Monetary Economics · 2022 · 13 citations

  Senior authorCorresponding
  • Economics
  • Econometrics
  • Monetary economics
  PublisherDOI

• The Natural Level of Capital Flows

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2019-08-01 · 2 citations

  reportOpen accessSenior author

  International portfolio flows converge in the medium run to a country-specific, supply-side estimate of their natural level. Our estimate of the natural level of capital flows, KF*, has impressive out-of-sample empirical features, greatly improves our ability to model notoriously volatile capital flows and performs well against out-of-sample and in-sample filtering techniques. Further, the gap between actual inflows and KF* helps predict sudden stop episodes, equity returns, and capital flows during the two largest shocks of the past few decades: the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 shock.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Benchmarking Portfolio Flows

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2018-06-01 · 2 citations

  reportOpen accessSenior author

  To gauge the amount of portfolio inflows a country can expect to receive, we create a benchmark, a longer-term baseline path around which actual flows fluctuate. The relationship between our benchmark and actual flows is quite strong for emerging market economies (EMEs). For our sample of 28 EMEs, there is a significant long-run relationship between actual portfolio flows and our benchmark, flows adjust strongly toward the benchmark, and our benchmark helps predict one-year-ahead changes in inflows. For advanced economies (AEs), results are less impressive, but again the benchmark performs well in directional forecasting exercises. In practical terms, it is informative to distinguish between movements toward the benchmark as opposed to movements away from the benchmark. An example: While portfolio inflows to both Asian EMEs and Latin America plummeted in 2015, our benchmark analysis correctly predicted that inflows should rebound in Asia (because flows had fallen far below the benchmark) but stay near the new, low level in Latin America (where the sharp decline in inflows was back to benchmark levels). We provide similar analysis for 45 countries, both advanced and emerging, for the 2000 to 2017 period.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Background Note on the Philippines and Financial Inclusion

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2018-01-01 · 1 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• Currency matters: Analyzing international bond portfolios

  Journal of International Economics · 2018-08-06 · 55 citations

  articleSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• Benchmarking Portfolio Flows

  IMF Economic Review · 2018-08-07 · 5 citations

  articleSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• Lifting the Poor: A Microfinance NGO Approach in the Philippines

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2018-01-01

  articleOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies' Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2017-07-01 · 26 citations

  preprintOpen accessSenior author

  We analyze the effect of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy on EME sovereign and corporate bond markets by focusing on two dimensions: the evolution of the structure (size and currency composition) of the bond markets and their allocations within the bond portfolios of US investors. Global factors, particularly the level of long-term US Treasury yields, matter. Across all specifications, when US long-term interest rates were low (i) EMEs issued more sovereign and private-sector local currency bonds and more private-sector foreign currency bonds and (ii) US investment in EME sovereign bonds (both local currency and USD-denominated) increased. In contrast, after controlling for the level of US long-term interest rates, measures that attempt to isolate the effects of US unconventional monetary policy are often statistically insignificant in our analysis. Local factors matter too: The local currency government bond markets in countries with stronger regulatory quality/creditor rights are larger and attract relatively more US investment. Finally, consistent with Burger et al. (2017), we find that the well-known home bias phenomenon is at least in part a home currency bias: US investors exhibit no home bias against some countries' USD-denominated bonds, whereas for local currency bonds the familiar home bias is very present.

  PublisherDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Francis E. Warnock

  National Bureau of Economic Research

  88 shared

• John D. Burger

  Loyola University Maryland

  58 shared

• Rajeswari Sengupta

  Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research

  16 shared

• Alessandro Rebucci

  George Washington University

  6 shared

• Arturo Galindo

  Inter-American Development Bank

  1 shared

• Frank Warnock

  1 shared