About

Joseph Vavra is a Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. His research focuses on macroeconomics and monetary economics, with particular attention to the influence of housing on the macroeconomy and the effects of regional business cycles on aggregate activity. Recent work by Vavra argues that monetary policy actions, such as quantitative easing during the Great Recession, amplified inequality, and he explores the consequences of stimulus policies during the pandemic. Vavra holds multiple degrees in economics from Yale University, including a Ph.D., M.Phil., and M.A., and earned a B.A. magna cum laude in mathematics, mathematical economic analysis, and statistics from Rice University. His academic interests include empirical macroeconomics, business cycles, and monetary policy, especially regarding the implications of microdata for understanding aggregate phenomena and how policy effects may vary depending on the phase of the business cycle.

Research topics

• Economics
• Monetary economics
• Macroeconomics
• Finance
• Demographic economics
• Labour economics
• Political Science
• Financial system
• Business
• Microeconomics
• Actuarial science
• Law

Selected publications

• Multiple modes of AFM reveal distinct mechanical properties for dystrophin and utrophin not manifest by small fragments

  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2026-01-14

  articleOpen access

  Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a lethal muscle disease caused by the absence of the protein dystrophin. Dystrophin is hypothesized to work as a molecular shock absorber that limits myofiber membrane damage when undergoing reversible unfolding upon muscle stretching and contraction. Here, we report the mechanical characterization of single full-length dystrophin (Dys) molecules using two operational modes of atomic force microscopy; constant speed and constant force as well as Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, we have compared Dys with large fragments encoding the N-terminus through spectrin repeat 10 (DysN-R10), the C-terminal retinal isoform of dystrophin (Dp260), and full-length utrophin (Utr). Our comprehensive data reveal that Dys, DysN-R10, and Dp260, all show a uniform, brittle unfolding behavior, whereas Utr demonstrates more complex unfolding dominated by a stiffening spring behavior. These fundamentally different mechanical behaviors in vitro suggest different in vivo functions for Dys and Utr with implications for the potential efficacy of Utr upregulation to substitute for Dys deficiency in DMD.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Earnings Instability

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Earnings Instability

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2025-01-01

  preprintOpen access
  PublisherDOI

• Human dystrophin tandem calponin homology actin-binding domain crystallized in a closed-state conformation

  Acta Crystallographica Section D Structural Biology · 2025-02-26 · 1 citations

  articleOpen access

  The structure of the N-terminal actin-binding domain of human dystrophin was determined at 1.94 Å resolution. Each chain in the asymmetric unit exists in a `closed' conformation, with the first and second calponin homology (CH) domains directly interacting via a 2500.6 Å 2 interface. The positioning of the individual CH domains is comparable to the domain-swapped dimer seen in previous human dystrophin and utrophin actin-binding domain 1 structures. The CH1 domain is highly similar to the actin-bound utrophin structure and structural homology suggests that the `closed' single-chain conformation opens during actin binding to mitigate steric clashes between CH2 and actin.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

• Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Inattention

  American Economic Review Insights · 2025-11-25 · 1 citations

  articleSenior author

  We build a model of optimal fixed-rate mortgage refinancing with fixed costs and inattention and derive a new sufficient statistic that can be used to measure inattention frictions from simple moments of the rate gap distribution. In the model, borrowers pay attention to rates sporadically, so they often fail to refinance even when it is profitable. When paying attention, borrowers optimally choose to refinance earlier than under a perfect attention benchmark. Our model can rationalize almost all errors of “omission” (refinancing too slowly) and a large fraction of the errors of “commission” (refinancing too quickly) previously documented in the data. (JEL D91, G41, G51)

  PublisherDOI

• Earnings Instability

  National Bureau of Economic Research · 2025-09-01 · 1 citations

  reportOpen access

  This paper uses high-frequency administrative data to show that the majority of U.S. workers experience substantial month-to-month fluctuations in pay, even within ongoing employment relationships.This earnings instability is pervasive, but it has been masked in past analysis of annual data.Moreover, this instability is unequally distributed: lower-income, hourly workers face more instability than higher-income, salaried workers.This is because earnings instability arises in large part from firm-driven fluctuations in hours.This earnings instability is a meaningful source of economic risk: we provide causal evidence that it increases consumption volatility and also leads to greater job separations, and we find that workers have a high willingness to pay to reduce earnings instability.These findings suggest that short-term earnings risk is a significant and previously underappreciated feature of the labor market.

  PublisherDOI

• Refinancing Frictions, Mortgage Pricing and Redistribution

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2024 · 10 citations

  Senior authorCorresponding
  • Political Science
  • Economics
  • Business
  PublisherDOI

• Refinancing Frictions, Mortgage Pricing and Redistribution

  SSRN Electronic Journal · 2024-01-01 · 3 citations

  articleOpen accessSenior author
  PublisherDOI

• Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data

  American Economic Review · 2024-08-29 · 17 citations

  articleSenior author

  We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in US history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics—but not employment dynamics—during the pandemic. Second, benefit expansions allow us to study the MPC of normally low-liquidity households in a high-liquidity state. These households still have high MPCs. This suggests a role for permanent behavioral characteristics, rather than just current liquidity, in driving spending behavior. Third, the mechanisms driving our results imply that temporary benefit supplements are a promising countercyclical tool. (JEL E21, E24, E32, E62, E71, G51, J65)

  PublisherDOI

• Two operational modes of atomic force microscopy reveal similar mechanical properties for homologous regions of dystrophin and utrophin

  bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · 2024-05-20 · 1 citations

  preprintOpen access

  Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a lethal muscle disease caused by the absence of the protein dystrophin. Dystrophin is hypothesized to work as a molecular shock absorber that limits myofiber membrane damage when undergoing reversible unfolding upon muscle stretching and contraction. Utrophin is a dystrophin homologue that is under investigation as a protein replacement therapy for DMD. However, it remains uncertain whether utrophin can mechanically substitute for dystrophin. Here, we compared the mechanical properties of homologous utrophin and dystrophin fragments encoding the N terminus through spectrin repeat 3 (UtrN-R3, DysN-R3) using two operational modes of atomic force microscopy (AFM), constant speed and constant force. Our comprehensive data, including the statistics of force magnitude at which the folded domains unfold in constant speed mode and the time of unfolding statistics in constant force mode, show consistent results. We recover parameters of the energy landscape of the domains and conducted Monte Carlo simulations which corroborate the conclusions drawn from experimental data. Our results confirm that UtrN-R3 expressed in bacteria exhibits significantly lower mechanical stiffness compared to insect UtrN-R3, while the mechanical stiffness of the homologous region of dystrophin (DysN-R3) is intermediate between bacterial and insect UtrN-R3, showing greater similarity to bacterial UtrN-R3. Significance Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a severe muscle wasting disorder caused by mutations in DMD gene encoding dystrophin. Utrophin, a fetal homologue of dystrophin, is under active investigation as a dystrophin replacement therapy for DMD. However, it is still unknown if it can substitute dystrophin mechanically. Here, we report mechanical properties of both utrophin and dystrophin fragments encoding the N terminus through spectrin repeat 3 (UtrN-R3, DysN-R3) using atomic force microscope (AFM) through two operational modes, constant speed and constant force. Our data, consistent across both modes, confirm that UtrN-R3 expressed in bacteria exhibits significantly lower mechanical stiffness than insect UtrN-R3. Additionally, bacterial DysN-R3 lies between bacterial and insect UtrN-R3 in terms of mechanical properties, leaning closer to bacterial UtrN-R3.

  PublisherOA PDFDOI

Frequent coauthors

• Erik Hurst

  101 shared

• Benjamin J. Keys

  85 shared

• Amit Seru

  85 shared

• David Berger

  Duke University

  61 shared

• Peter Ganong

  University of Chicago

  44 shared

• Guido Lorenzoni

  39 shared

• Veronica Guerrieri

  University of Chicago

  39 shared

• Pascal Noel

  University of Chicago

  30 shared

Awards & honors

• Distinguished Alumni Award Honorees